美联储鹰派降息落地，黄金延续回调趋势

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core View of the Report - Gold prices continued the downward trend after the Fed's hawkish rate cut. The price of London gold dropped 2.7% to $4,002 per ounce. After a 10% correction from the high, the willingness of funds to buy the dip increased, and the decline rate of gold prices slowed down. Multiple factors such as the Fed's policy, geopolitical situation, and domestic tax policy changes are unfavorable to gold prices in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was -0.90 yuan/gram, a week - on - week change of 1.87 yuan or -67.5%. The internal - external futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was -10.55 yuan/gram, a week - on - week change of -3.55 yuan or 50.8%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 0.9% to 87,816 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.82% to 38,168,047 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.74% to 1039.20 tons. The CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.2% to 158,616 lots. The U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.2% to 4.11%, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate increased by 6.7% to 1.82% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.86% to 99.8, and the U.S. Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.07%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.71%, and the VIX index slightly increased to 17. The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 4.04%. Oil prices dropped 1.9%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.29%. The real interest rate rebounded to 1.82%, and the gold price dropped 2.7%. The spot commodity index closed up [15][18][21] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 0.71%. Developing - country stock markets mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.11%. U.S. and German bonds rose, and the U.S. - German yield spread was 1.46%. The British Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.67%. The euro depreciated 0.79%, the pound depreciated 1.2%, the yen depreciated 0.74%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.12% [23][27][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR gold ETF holding volume decreased to 1036 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed. Gold prices fell, silver prices rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 82 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - On Monday, the U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI was released. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate meeting resolution was announced. On Wednesday, the U.S. October ADP employment and ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI were released. On Thursday, the Bank of England's interest - rate meeting resolution was announced. On Friday, the U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was released [38] Investment Advice - In the short term, pay attention to the risk of gold price decline. The change in domestic tax policy also increases market volatility. If the demand for domestic physical gold drops significantly, the discount of domestic gold relative to foreign gold will widen [4]