流动性与同业存单跟踪：11月狭义流动性延续偏松的两个理由

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit slowdown slows commercial banks' excess reserve consumption and reduces liquidity friction at month - and quarter - ends, while the central bank actively injects medium - and long - term liquidity, especially restarting treasury bond trading, are the two reasons for the continued loose narrow liquidity in November [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 月狭义流动性延续偏松的两个理由 - Credit slowdown is the basis for the endogenous loosening of narrow liquidity. Due to the weak real - economy financing demand and the change in the assessment method, banks' willingness to issue low - interest loans at month - and quarter - ends has decreased. On October 30, the yields of national and joint - stock bank acceptance bill rediscounts were all low, indicating "bill - for - loan" behavior and sufficient "broad credit" for banks to smoothly lend to non - bank institutions [2][10] - Economic leading indicators show that the real economy needs support, so the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy. The central bank has been net - injecting funds through operations like repurchase and MLF since June 2025, and will restart treasury bond trading. The amount and duration of this trading will affect the optimism of base - money replenishment [3][11] 2. 狭义流动性 2.1 央行操作：将重启国债买卖投放基础货币 - Short - term liquidity: From October 27 - 31, the central bank's net injection of pledged repurchase was 12008 billion yuan. As of October 31, the central bank's repurchase balance was 20680 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [12] - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the due amounts of outright repurchase and MLF were 13000 billion yuan and 7000 billion yuan respectively. The central bank's net injection of outright repurchase was 4000 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 2000 billion yuan [13] 2.2 机构融入融出情况：符合月末宽松的特征 - Fund supply: On October 31, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 3.2 trillion yuan, and the net lending balance was 4.2 trillion yuan, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.5 trillion yuan, at a neutral level. The net lending of joint - stock banks was - 25 billion yuan, also at a neutral level [16] - Fund demand: On October 31, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 765 billion yuan from October 24. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products were 107% and 113% respectively, with different percentile positions since 2020 [22] 2.3 回购市场成交情况：跨月资金成本较低 - Fund volume and price: Last week, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, but the cross - month repurchase rate remained stable. The median daily trading volume was about 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8599 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The median R001 was 1.44%, up about 6bp from last week. The liquidity friction was small [29] - Fund sentiment index: After a slight tightening during the tax period on the 27th and 28th, the cross - month fund situation became loose, and the fund sentiment index fell below 50 [30] 2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - After the news of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, the 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rates dropped. On October 31, their weighted average rates were 1.53% and 1.59% respectively, with low percentile positions since 2020 [36] 3. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力较小 3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - Last week, the net payment of government bonds was 1337 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected to be a net repayment of 382 billion yuan, with relatively small pressure [37] 3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.4%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 10361 billion yuan. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5%, with a remaining issuance space of 5454 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds completed the annual task [39] 4. 同业存单：净融资规模继续回落，存单利率下行 4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 31, SHIBOR quotes changed little. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) of different maturities all declined compared to October 24, benefiting from the loose funds after the news of the central bank's treasury bond trading [43] 4.2 发行和存量情况 - From October 27 - 31, the primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 7349 billion yuan, a decrease of 2283 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The proportion of different maturities changed, with 1M, 3M, and 9M increasing and 6M and 1Y decreasing [45] 4.3 相对估值 - On October 31, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield were at certain percentile positions since 2020 [48]