中美博弈缓和叠加央行重启买卖国债，债市牛陡：利率债市场周度复盘-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report In the last week of October, despite fluctuations in funds due to tax - period outflows and Beijiao Stock Exchange new - share subscriptions, the funds smoothly crossed the month under the central bank's active support. With the easing of Sino - US tariff disputes and the central bank's announcement to restart treasury bond trading, bond yields oscillated strongly and the yield curve steepened. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by 9BP to 1.38%, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by 5.25BP to 1.7925%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield dropped by 6.65BP to 2.1460% [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory (1) Interest - rate Bond Market Review: Easing Sino - US Tensions and Central Bank's Restart of Treasury Bond Trading Lead to a Bullish and Steep Bond Market - In the last week of October, affected by tax - period outflows and Beijiao Stock Exchange new - share subscriptions, funds fluctuated but crossed the month smoothly under the central bank's support. The easing of Sino - US tariff disputes, the post - meeting market reaction of the heads of state, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading led to an oscillating and strengthening of bond yields and a steepening of the curve. The 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields all declined [5][8]. - The central bank made a large - scale net injection of 14008 billion yuan this week. Affected by tax - period outflows and frozen funds from Beijiao Stock Exchange new - share subscriptions, the funds' prices first rose and then fell. The 1 - year treasury bond active bond yield dropped by 9BP to 1.38% [5][9]. - Monday (October 27): Positive signals from Sino - US - Malaysia trade negotiations led to a strong performance in the equity market. After an initial 1BP upward pricing of negative news in the bond market, yields gradually declined driven by the news of the MLF tender rate cut. At the end of the session, multiple positive factors such as the central bank's announcement to restart treasury bond trading led to a short - term decline of 4 - 5BP in the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields [5][9]. - Tuesday (October 28): The central bank made a net injection of 3158 billion yuan in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, suppressing bond market sentiment. In the afternoon, the bond market showed differentiation, with long - term and ultra - long - term yields rising 1 - 2BP, while 1 - 3 - year varieties declined overall, and credit bonds performed strongly [2][9]. - Wednesday (October 29): The central bank made a net injection of 4195 billion yuan in the morning. The Shanghai Composite Index held steady at 4000 points. The bond market showed differentiation between short - and long - term bonds, with 1 - 3 - year treasury bond yields dropping 3 - 4BP, and 10 - year and 30 - year bonds remaining stable [2][9]. - Thursday (October 30): The central bank made a net injection of 1301 billion yuan in the morning. After the Sino - US summit, the equity market showed a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" pattern, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. Most yields of major interest - rate bonds declined, and the curve flattened compared to the previous day [2][9]. - Friday (October 31): The manufacturing PMI in October unexpectedly dropped to around 49, indicating weak fundamental recovery. The equity market was weak, the technology sector corrected significantly, and the new regulations on public fund redemptions might be relaxed. The bond market sentiment was strong, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped to 1.7925% [2][9]. (2) Funding Situation: The Central Bank's OMO Made a Large - scale Net Injection, and the Funding Situation was in a Stable and Balanced State The central bank made a large - scale net injection of 14008 billion yuan this week. Affected by tax - period outflows and frozen funds from Beijiao Stock Exchange new - share subscriptions, the funds' prices first rose and then fell. The high points of DR001 and DR007 weighted prices were 1.4687% and 1.5818% respectively, and the issuance price of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit dropped to around 1.63% [5][9]. (3) Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Policy - based Financial Bonds and Local Bonds Increased, while Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit Decreased There is no detailed data and analysis provided in the content about the increase in net financing of policy - based financial bonds and local bonds and the decrease in net financing of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. (4) Benchmark Changes: The Term Spread of Treasury Bonds Widened, and the Term Spread of Policy - based Financial Bonds Narrowed - In terms of the change in the yield curve shape, the term spread of treasury bonds widened, and the term spread of policy - based financial bonds narrowed. Specifically, the short - term yields of treasury bonds dropped by 8.90BP, and the short - term yields of policy - based financial bonds dropped by 5.50BP. The long - term yields of treasury bonds dropped by 5.32BP, and the long - term yields of policy - based financial bonds dropped by 7.59BP. Short - term treasury bonds performed better than long - term ones, while the opposite was true for policy - based financial bonds. - In terms of the absolute level of term spreads, the 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds widened by 3.58BP to 41.28BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of policy - based financial bonds narrowed by 2.09BP to 33.84BP [22].