债市专题研究：固收+视角下的公募基金三季报

Core Insights - As of Q3 2025, the total management scale and share of public funds have steadily increased, but there is a divergence in the scale trends between equity and bond funds. The net value improvement has led to significant growth in mixed equity funds, while pure bond fund scales have declined. The public indexation level continues to deepen, with ETF scales reaching new highs. Under the expectation of a slow bull market, the expansion of balanced allocation secondary bond funds is evident [1][2][11]. Group 1 - The management scale and share of public funds have steadily increased, but there is a divergence in the scale trends between equity and bond funds. As of October 31, 2025, the share of equity funds reached 312,419 billion units, with a management scale of 53,875 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.12% and 26.16%. In contrast, bond fund shares reached 91,336 billion units, with a management scale of 107,585 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.82% and 1.41% [2][11]. - The public funds are increasingly passive, with significant expansion in secondary bond funds under balanced allocation. The share of passive equity index products increased by 3,103 billion units in Q3 2025. Benefiting from the rights attributes of secondary bond funds and the strong performance of the equity market under slow bull expectations, the share and scale of secondary bond funds have significantly expanded, increasing by 3,847 billion units compared to Q2 2025 [3][15][17]. Group 2 - Recent equity market indices have turned volatile, showing resilience during adjustments, highlighting the allocation value of mixed bond funds. In terms of monthly returns, since October, mixed first-level, mixed second-level, and convertible bond funds recorded returns of 0.43%, 0.20%, and -0.65%, significantly outperforming ordinary equity funds (-1.96%), mixed equity funds (-2.14%), and flexible allocation funds (-1.12%). The strong defensive attributes of fixed income plus products are evident, with the scale of convertible bonds held by public funds reaching a historical high of 352.9 billion yuan as of Q3 2025 [4][18][19]. - The demand side for convertible bonds remains strong despite a marginal decrease in supply, and the natural defensive attributes of mixed bond funds are expected to provide a sufficient safety cushion. The scale of secondary bond funds and passive bond indices has continued to increase, with quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 46.8% and 158.6%, respectively [4][18][19].