Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-02 11:26Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [38]. Core Insights - The report highlights that COSCO Shipping and Xiamen Xiangyu's performance exceeded expectations, suggesting a focus on opportunities in the transportation sector due to institutional underweight positions [4]. - The shipping segment shows resilience, with COSCO Shipping's Q3 performance slightly above expectations, and tanker stock performance aligning with freight rate trends [4]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a significant recovery in passenger demand, with domestic air travel reaching 210 million passengers in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [4]. - The express delivery sector is under pressure, but the "Tongda" system is beginning to show initial effects of anti-involution strategies [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - COSCO Shipping's Q3 net profit reached 9.533 billion yuan, a 63.2% increase from Q2, but a 55.14% decrease year-on-year [6]. - Current charter rates are at $50,000 per day, with spot rates at $120,000, indicating a potential decline in rates during the off-season [4][6]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector's performance aligns with order price trends, with historical patterns suggesting a recovery phase for the shipbuilding sector [4]. Aviation and Airports - Domestic airlines achieved profitability in Q3, with China Eastern Airlines showing the most significant improvement [4]. - International passenger volume at major airports has recovered to 92-104% of 2019 levels, driving growth in both aviation and non-aviation revenues [4]. Express Delivery - SF Express continues to invest strategically, maintaining high growth rates despite short-term margin pressures [4]. - The express delivery sector is seeing price increases in core areas, indicating potential for profit recovery in Q4 [4]. Road and Rail - Q3 saw a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continued to grow year-on-year [4]. - Recommendations include Zhejiang Huhang Highway, Anhui Expressway, and Daqin Railway, with a focus on logistics transformation benefiting freight volumes [4]. Financial Performance - Key companies in the transportation sector showed varied performance in Q3, with Xiamen Xiangyu's net profit increasing by 14.95% quarter-on-quarter and 443.17% year-on-year [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow, with several companies showing significant improvements in operating cash flow [7][8].