镍：冶炼端累库压制，矿端不确定性支撑，不锈钢：钢价低位窄幅震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel Market: The Shanghai nickel market is experiencing a situation where short - term prices are supported while inventories are at a high level and accumulating. The bearish logic lies in high - level inventory accumulation at the smelting end and expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies and limited downward space for short - term pyrometallurgical costs. Long - term volatility may increase [2]. - Stainless Steel Market: The stainless steel market lacks effective upward drivers and has limited downward imagination space. It is recommended to adopt a conservative low - level range trading strategy in the short term and a long - term bottom - seeking and re - long strategy. The market is in a long - and short - term game between expectations and reality [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - Nickel: The smelting end's inventory accumulation suppresses prices, but the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies provides support. The substitution of nickel iron for nickel plates in the nickel alloy sector and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity of nickel prices [2]. - Stainless Steel: The early over - export effect has been digested, and overseas trade consultations have eased tariff concerns. However, the traditional peak season has fallen short of expectations, and post - real - estate cycle consumption remains weak. Although the overall inventory has declined from the high level, the absolute inventory of the mid - and upstream is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel prices. The cost has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, but the marginal inventory accumulation rate has converged [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: China's social inventory increased by 1050 tons to 48746 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4578 tons to 31388 tons, spot inventory decreased by 3528 tons to 13288 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 4070 tons. LME inventory increased by 1248 tons to 252102 tons [5]. - New Energy: On October 31, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 2, and +1 months - on - month to 4, 7, and 7 days respectively; on October 24, the precursor inventory changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days; on October 30, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.3 month - on - month to 6.9 days [5]. - Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel: On October 31, SMM nickel iron inventory was 29564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. In September, SMN stainless steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a 4% year - on - month increase and a 1% month - on - month decrease. On October 30, 2025, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly increased to 947000 tons; the total social inventory of Steel Union stainless steel was 1831096 tons, with a 0.36% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 651940 tons, with a 0.4% week - on - week increase [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 0.3% area of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 198 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order, requiring the approval of the next year's mine RKAB to be completed by November 15 this year. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15. According to the transition clause, the approved 2026 RKAB before the order takes effect can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [7]. - US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides weekly tracking data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, import prices, premiums, and spreads of related products [10]. 3.5 Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related raw materials over the years [11][13][15][17][19][21][23].