Minsheng Securities·2025-11-02 11:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD, with a target price of 100.79 CNY per share [7]. Core Insights - BYD's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 566.27 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.33 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 194.98 billion CNY, down 3.1% year-on-year and 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 7.82 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 32.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.1% [1][2]. Revenue and Sales Performance - Q3 2025 sales volume was 1.114 million vehicles, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year and 2.7% quarter-on-quarter, with high-end models accounting for 8.2% of total sales, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 2025 was 136,700 CNY, showing a slight decline compared to previous quarters [2]. Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin in Q3 2025 was 17.6%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 4.0%, with a single vehicle net profit of 620 CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. Strategic Developments - BYD is making steady progress in high-end branding and has accelerated overseas factory establishment, with significant growth in exports, particularly in Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [4]. - The company aims to enhance its brand system and overcome high-end market challenges, with notable sales increases in high-end models [4]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 866.47 billion CNY, 981.28 billion CNY, and 1,104.53 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 37.25 billion CNY, 47.46 billion CNY, and 58.59 billion CNY [6][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.09 CNY, 5.21 CNY, and 6.43 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].