Workflow
白酒三季报持续承压,看好底部布局
Xiangcai Securities·2025-11-02 11:42

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 0.23% from October 27 to October 31, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.20 percentage points [2][7] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of 21X, ranking 22nd among Shenwan's primary industries [3][14] - The third-quarter reports for the liquor sector indicate continued pressure, with Guizhou Moutai reporting a revenue of 128.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 64.63 billion yuan, both showing modest growth [4][43] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From October 27 to October 31, 2025, the food and beverage industry fell by 0.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67% [2][7] - The sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with pre-processed foods up by 3.78%, snacks by 2.66%, and baked goods by 1.50% [2][7] Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio stands at 21X, with other liquor categories at 57X, health products at 44X, and snacks at 35X, while white liquor is at 19X [3][14] Liquor Sector Insights - The third-quarter performance of the liquor industry remains under pressure, with slow recovery in consumption and significant inventory issues [4][5] - The wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai has decreased by 5.37% to 1,675 yuan per bottle [4][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: stable demand leaders with strong risk resistance and companies actively innovating in new products, channels, and consumption scenarios [5][43] - Recommended companies include New Dairy, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yanjinpuzi [5][43]