生猪：矛盾积累，远端淡季中枢或进一步下移

Report Title - "Pigs: Contradictions Accumulating, Potential Further Decline in the Central Price during the Distant Off - season" [1] Report Date - November 2, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The central price of live pig spot and futures may further decline. For the spot market, the supply pressure is large and the demand is expected to weaken, leading to a lower price center. For the futures market, due to factors such as inventory pressure and supply increase, the price centers of relevant contracts are also expected to decline [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review (October 27 - November 2) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Pig prices fluctuated strongly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.95 yuan/kg (last week: 19.4 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.98 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The supply side saw enterprises slightly reduce volume at the end of the month, while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. The demand side was weakened as rising prices suppressed demand and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG), a 0.19% decrease [2] 3.1.2 Futures Market - Pig futures prices showed weak performance. The highest price of the LH2601 contract this week was 12,445 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,815 yuan/ton (last week: 12,170 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 715 yuan/ton (last week: - 195 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (November 3 - November 9) 3.2.1 Spot Market - Live pig spot prices are expected to run weakly. Low prices in October stimulated demand and cold storage, and the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs drove the enthusiasm for secondary fattening. However, there was a negative feedback at the terminal, limiting further price increases. From the supply perspective, the market supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the supply pressure is large. From the demand perspective, although low prices in October stimulated demand, the demand is expected to weaken in November. Overall, the price center will further decline [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2601 contract closed at 11,810 yuan/ton on October 31. The large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October led to a negative feedback at the terminal, a decrease in slaughter volume, and a weakening of spot prices. There is a large pressure to reduce weight in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to fully digest inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to be realized in the March and May contracts. It is expected that the price center will further decline, with a short - term support level of 11,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12,300 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4] 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis was 715 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was 440 yuan/ton [8] - This week's average weight was 124.51KG (last week: 124.75KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a 5.9% month - on - month increase; in September, pork imports were 80,600 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease [12]