碳酸锂：短期动力淡季预期，长期储能增长预期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts first rose and then declined, breaking through 80,000 yuan/ton. The 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 80,780 yuan/ton, up 1,260 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 5,150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 80,550 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals show that the de - stocking speed has accelerated. The price of lithium ore has increased significantly, the inventory has decreased, the weekly output has decreased, and the start - up rate has declined. From July to November, the energy storage demand has exceeded market expectations, but there are concerns about a seasonal decline in power demand from December to February of the next year [2]. - In the short term, the price is expected to enter a correction state, but the long - term outlook for next year remains positive. The trading logic should shift to the decline in the total demand during the power off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The report presents figures on the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [8]. 2. Upstream Supply of Lithium Salts - Lithium Ore - Figures show the processing spot and disk profits of spodumene concentrate and the average price trend of spodumene concentrate. The data sources include Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [8]. - There are also figures on the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with the same data sources [9]. 3. Mid - stream Consumption of Lithium Salts - Lithium Salt Products - Multiple figures display various aspects of lithium salt products, such as the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost. The data sources are Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9][10]. - Figures also show the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (including battery - grade and industrial - grade), the monthly production volume of domestic lithium carbonate by raw material and region, the weekly production volume and start - up rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly start - up rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants. The data sources are the same as above [10][11][12]. 4. Downstream Consumption of Lithium Salts - Lithium Batteries and Materials - Figures present the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, the available days of lithium carbonate inventory, the monthly production volume and start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production volume and start - up rate of ternary materials (including various types), the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of domestic power lithium batteries (including various types). The data sources are Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [13][14]. Trading Suggestions - Unilateral Trading: A correction is expected, and the price of the futures main contract is predicted to range between 70,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - period Trading: Not recommended, as the upward movement of the unilateral price weakens the basis, but the inventory is expected to continue to be de - stocked [5]. - Hedging: It is recommended to increase the proportion of selling hedging and build positions in a pyramid - shaped manner [6].