白糖：弱现实、弱现货、弱基差

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market outlook: expected to be volatile and weak. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern, with an anticipated restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar season. Concerns about global consumption are raised due to the accelerated crushing progress in central - southern Brazil and a year - on - year decline in exports [3][30]. - Domestic market outlook: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase steadily, but the sugar yield in Guangxi has declined, leading to a likely rise in production costs. Zhengzhou sugar trends follow the international raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, the year - on - year decline in regular imports has narrowed, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder remain at a high level [3][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 International Market - Exchange rates: the US dollar index is 98.73 (previous value 98.94), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.38 (previous value 5.38) [1][5]. - Commodity prices: WTI crude oil price is $60.88 per barrel (- 0.91%); the active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.42 cents per pound (- 3.67%). As of October 16, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season is 36.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. The ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. The OCSB data shows that the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season is 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1]. - CFTC positions: as of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3,754 lots, short positions increased by 18,708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22,462 lots year - on - year to - 151,598 lots [1][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market - Spot and futures prices: the spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,720 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,483 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar imports in China in the 24/25 sugar season are 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,000 tons. The CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.98 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2][11]. - Warehouse receipts: as of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar are 7,530 lots [12]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - International market: expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][30]. - Domestic market: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. Trading is centered around the import rhythm [3][30]. 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange rates: the US dollar index is 98.73 (previous value 98.94), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.38 (previous value 5.38) [5]. - Crude oil: WTI crude oil price is $60.88 per barrel (- 0.91%) [5]. 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: the active contract price of New York raw sugar is 14.42 cents per pound (- 3.67%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,720 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,483 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased. The CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [11]. - Warehouse receipts: as of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar are 7,530 lots [12]. - CFTC positions: as of September 23, long positions of funds decreased by 3,754 lots, short positions increased by 18,708 lots, and net long positions decreased by 22,462 lots year - on - year to - 151,598 lots [12]. 3.4.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: the ISO predicts a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season [17]. - Brazil: as of October 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in central - southern Brazil is 525 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%; sugar production is 36.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; alcohol production is 25.04 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production is 52.36%, compared with 48.74% in the same period of the previous year [17]. - India: as of May 15, the sugar production in India in the 24/25 sugar season is 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. The ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [17]. - Thailand: the sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar season is 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [18]. - China: the CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons (+ 100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In September 2025, sugar imports are 550,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season are 4.63 million tons (- 120,000 tons) [18]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - International market: expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [30]. - Domestic market: characterized by weak reality, weak spot prices, and a weak basis. Trading is centered around the import rhythm [30].