国债期货周报-20251102

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the Treasury bond futures market this week shows an oscillating and relatively strong pattern, with differences still existing in the market's expectations of loose capital and economic recovery [5]. - Maintain the view that the medium - term general direction is oscillating and slightly bearish. After the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, the sentiment in the equity market has declined, boosting the performance of the bond market. The Treasury bond futures may break away from the previous downward channel and shift to an oscillating channel, and it is still possible to actively participate in the structural market where long - term players seek capital gains [4][5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts declined across the board this week. Short - term prices were relatively stagnant, while long - term prices fluctuated greatly. After the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders, the sentiment in the equity market declined, enhancing the performance of the bond market [5]. - The market's expectations of loose capital and economic recovery differ. Although the central bank's reverse repurchase rate is stable, the FR007 interest rate swap curve has declined across all maturities, indicating that the market's expectation of the sustainability of policy easing has increased [5]. - On October 27, 2025, Governor Pan stated at the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference that "the People's Bank of China will resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations", which is beneficial to the bond market [5]. - On October 28, Xinhua News Agency released the full text of "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", conveying important guidelines and policy signals. The Federal Reserve continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction in December [5]. - The Treasury bond futures market shows the characteristics of a mild upward trend in the short - term and intensified fluctuations in the long - term. The yield curve continues to flatten. The short - term is driven by loose capital, while the long - term is affected by policy expectations and allocation needs [8]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific text content is provided for this section, only a figure titled "Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking" is given [10]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds decreased by 0.74%; foreign capital decreased by 2.47%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 2.74%. Weekly changes: Private funds increased by 3.4%; foreign capital increased by 4.8%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.02% [11].