黑色金属周报合集-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: In the off - season, trade based on expectations and pay attention to rebound opportunities. Negative feedback dominates the industry logic, and focus on the rhythm of steel mill production cuts. The cost of scrap steel is high, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric furnace production cuts [3][6]. - Iron Ore: With positive macro - expectations, it will fluctuate at a high level. The recent rebound in ore prices is mainly driven by stronger macro - expectations, but the industrial fundamentals may limit the upside space in the future [3][83]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The current supply - demand situation is tight, and prices will fluctuate at a high level. The spot prices remain strong, and the valuation may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [3][132]. - Ferroalloys: Affected by sector sentiment and fundamental contradictions, prices will fluctuate widely [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Macro - environment: Overseas, US inflation in September declined more than expected, and the valuation of pro - cyclical commodities increased. The Sino - US summit had good results, easing the previous frictions. Domestically, manufacturing and infrastructure investment declined due to the "anti - involution" effect, and demand - side efforts are needed in the long - term. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the domestic market shifted back to "anti - involution" trading [8][11][12]. - Supply - demand and inventory: Supply is at a low level, demand has increased, and inventory levels are healthy. For thread steel, last week, the Shanghai spot price was 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3106 (+60) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 124 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 (+3) yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the Shanghai spot price was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3308 (+58) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 22 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 10 (+5) yuan/ton [7][25][46]. - Demand: For thread steel, new - home sales remained low, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remained high, showing rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. For hot - rolled coils, the peak demand season was lackluster, but export profits were available, and exports remained at a high level [26][29][47]. - Production profit: The expected production restrictions were revised, and steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the thread steel spot profit was 52 (- 37) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 59 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the East China thread steel valley - electricity profit was 40 (- 7) yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot profit was - 8 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 111 (- 5) yuan/ton [41][60]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: The year - end shipment rush continued, and overseas shipments were at a high level. Global shipments in the recent week were 3388.54 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 303.2 million tons. Australian shipments were 1919.5 million tons, Brazilian shipments were 925.1 million tons, etc. [81][82]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis and was close to the level of the same period last year [83]. - Contract and spot prices: The main 01 - contract price fluctuated strongly, closing at 800.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 540,000 lots (a decrease of 25,400 lots). The average daily trading volume was 336,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 lots. Spot prices increased week - on - week [85][89]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation trend continued, which may suppress the upside space of ore prices in the future [83][115]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Supply: The actual supply in the production areas was still lower than expected. The weekly production of FW raw coal was 851.81 (+3.81) million tons, and the production of FW clean coal was 434.92 (+1.47) million tons. The daily average production of independent coking plants was 64.61 (- 0.68) million tons [132][134]. - Demand: The trading atmosphere in the production areas was warm. With the strengthening of the expectation of further price increases for downstream coke, it may support the demand for high - priced coal [132]. - Viewpoint summary: The current supply - demand situation is tight, and spot prices remain strong. Affected by macro - factors, the valuation may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [132].