棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，或有二次下探，豆油：美豆反弹，品种间暂偏强运行

Report Date - The report is dated November 2, 2025 [1] Last Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The market was concerned about the large production volume in Malaysia in the fourth quarter. Without effective demand drivers and supply stories, the palm oil 01 contract continued to decline, with a weekly drop of 4.01%. Attention was paid to the support level at 8,200 - 8,400 [2] Soybean Oil - The production situation in Brazil was favorable. In a well - supplied environment, soybean oil was difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly followed the weak oscillation of the oil and fat sector. However, the strong export demand and the inevitable inventory reduction process of soybean oil kept it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties. The soybean oil 01 contract dropped 0.71% last week [2] This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - In Malaysia, the overall production and rainfall conditions this year were favorable, which might lead to the fourth - quarter production being above the level of the same period last year. The year - end inventory was expected to be at a relatively high level of around 2 million tons. The supply side needed an additional production reduction to stimulate a price increase. The price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia stabilized and rose. Indonesia's production in October should return below 5 million tons, but the inventory accumulation trend after August was difficult to reverse. The market's speculation that Indonesia's actual inventory was above 6 million tons made the actual inventory level lose its trading significance. In the short term, it was difficult to see a strong driving force in the origin. There were even concerns about the later inventory accumulation speed in Indonesia. Even if Malaysia's inventory decreased rapidly after October, starting from 2.36 million tons in September, there was a high possibility that the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia would recover to over 5 million tons by the end of the year. The driving force from the origin for the oil and fat market this year had decreased. - In the sales area, the forward import profit of Indian CPO increased rapidly, which stimulated India to buy a large number of ships, possibly having a certain price - supporting effect but no additional positive factors. The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector declined rapidly recently. Without the improvement of the operating rate this year, the inventory accumulation pressure was large by the end of the year. Before the specific blending policy was implemented next year, it was too early for US soybean oil to rebound. In the fourth quarter, the international demand side was difficult to provide further stimulation. The only positive factor was that the profit and stocking sentiment of European biodiesel were still good, but this high profit was mainly due to the high price caused by the HVO liquidity problem, and the boost to raw material demand had an upper limit. - In conclusion, as US soybean oil was difficult to improve substantially, international oil and fat prices were suppressed and lost the biggest driving force for reversal. Although Malaysia's inventory was likely to reach an inflection point in October and would experience rapid inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, Indonesia's inventory was also likely to bottom out in August. By the end of the year, it was difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the origin's inventory, which was expected to increase to the level at the end of 2023. There was no strong upward driving force from the origin, and it was not excluded that the price would continue to decline to the price platform at the end of June, i.e., the 8,200 - 8,400 range. The upward opening of the palm oil price space could only be expected from the implementation of B50 and unexpected production in the fourth quarter [3] Soybean Oil - The support level of the cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in biodiesel decreased with the decline of crude oil prices. The progress of the Sino - US soybean procurement agreement might make Trump no longer consider the rapid development of the biodiesel sector. The issue of SRE redistribution made it more difficult to formulate rules, and the final announcement of RVO was likely to be delayed. Before the policy was implemented, the inevitable inventory accumulation trend of US soybean oil would prevent it from fully reflecting the tight fundamental expectation. It might even seek exports in the fourth quarter. In this case, the price of US soybean oil would mainly fluctuate with crude oil, diesel crack spread, and US soybean prices and was still in a downward channel. The 50 cents/pound level might not have actual support. - The overall soybean sowing progress in Brazil was favorable. The rainfall in mid - and late October was beneficial to the early growth of the soybeans sown in September. The production prospect of Brazil's new season soybeans was positive, and a high - yield pattern was taking shape. The global soybean supply in the 2025/2026 season remained abundant, which restricted the upward driving force of the international soybean - related market. - In the domestic market, there was almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January. The export demand might keep domestic soybean oil inventory decreasing monthly until March next year. Therefore, among oil and fat varieties, soybean oil was mainly recommended for long - term allocation, especially when palm oil still had回调 pressure. However, it did not have an independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result could be reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [4][5] Overall View - Malaysia's inventory is likely to reach an inflection point in October and will experience rapid inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, but Indonesia's inventory is also likely to bottom out in August. By the end of the year, it is difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the origin's inventory, which is expected to increase to the level at the end of 2023. There is no strong upward driving force from the origin, and it is not excluded that the price will continue to decline to the 8,200 - 8,400 range. The upward opening of the palm oil price space can only be expected from the implementation of B50 and unexpected production in the fourth quarter. When palm oil still has回调 pressure, soybean oil is mainly recommended for long - term allocation, but it does not have an independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [6] Disk Basic Market Data Price and Volume | Variety | Unit | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 9,110 | 9,150 | 8,720 | 8,764 | - 4.01% | 2,620,557 | - 21,105 | 392,995 | 43,304 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 8,192 | 8,258 | 8,020 | 8,128 | - 0.71% | 2,641,662 | 51,471 | 493,021 | - 4,567 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 9,767 | 9,785 | 9,379 | 9,422 | - 3.12% | 2,345,011 | 78,228 | 220,738 | - 30,322 | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | Ringgit/ton | 4,435 | 4,446 | 4,198 | 4,205 | - 4.86% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | Cents/pound | 50.62 | 50.94 | 48.56 | 48.62 | - 3.32% | - | - | - | - | Spread | Spread Type | Unit | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Soybean 01 Spread | Yuan/ton | 1,294 | 1,567 | - 17.42% | | Soybean - Palm 01 Spread | Yuan/ton | 3636 | - 928 | 31.47% | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | - 50 | 18 | - 377.78% | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | 170 | 178 | - 4.49% | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | 2818 | 384 | - 26.82% | Warehouse Receipts | Variety | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | Lots | 0 | 600 | - 600 | | Soybean Oil | Lots | 27,644 | 27,344 | 300 | | Rapeseed Oil | Lots | 7,540 | 7,540 | 0 | [8]