国泰君安期货锡周报-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices rebounded slightly and showed a volatile weekly performance. Recently, driven by the Indonesian event and macro - sentiment, tin prices rose above 290,000 and then fell again. Fundamentally, domestic and overseas inventories showed reverse changes: domestic social inventories continued to decline with the shutdown and maintenance in Yunnan, while LME inventories restocked with a significant drop in the cancelled warrant ratio. The domestic spot premium increased slightly, and the overseas 0 - 3 structure also rebounded. The short - term fundamentals of tin prices have no clear direction and are more likely to fluctuate following macro - guidance [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was $40 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 500 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [9][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [18]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventories decreased by 144 tons, and futures inventories increased by 22 tons. LME inventories increased by 125 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 4.35% [24][29]. 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 199,379 million yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [34]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin increased slightly, and the open interest continued to rise [36][41]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin increased slightly [46]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In September 2025, the import volume was 8,714 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.11%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The import profit - and - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [50][51]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 10,510 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.72%, a slight decrease from last week [56][58]. 3.2.3 Import - In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot import volume was 1,269 tons, the export volume was 1,640 tons, and the net export volume was 1,748 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 676 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 15,453 yuan per ton [64]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 10,031 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,302 tons [72]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased by 784.8% in September. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [75]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In September 2025, the end - user production performance varied. The monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the production of air conditioners increased, and the production of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly. The consumption of home appliances and new energy showed a month - on - month increase. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89].