工业硅：仓单去化，底部支撑夯实，多晶硅：下周或有政策落地消息，盘面将冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month starting from November, and the demand is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The short - term disk is considered to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [7][8] - Polysilicon: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price showed a strong - side oscillation, and the spot price increased. The futures closed at 9100 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9100 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 200) [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 56410 yuan/ton on Friday, and the upstream spot price remained firm [2] 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The overall weekly production increased month - on - month, with an increase in the start - up rate in Inner Mongolia and a decrease in the southwest region. In November and December, the overall production is expected to decrease month - on - month. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 million tons compared to last week, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.06 million tons [3] - Demand side: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The demand for polysilicon may decrease in the future, the demand from the organic silicon sector remained at a rigid level, and the terminal consumption space was limited. The aluminum alloy sector was operating at a low - load level, and the export market had some inquiry orders [4] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production decreased month - on - month. Starting from November, the production of leading factories in the southwest will decrease, and the expected production will fall to 10 - 11 million tons. The inventory increased this week [5][6] - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly month - on - month, but the price of some specifications of silicon wafers decreased. There were some upstream - downstream orders, but the transaction price remained flat [6] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - Market outlook: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, but the disk has certain support. It is recommended to observe the daily registration/decline of warehouse receipts [7] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [8] Polysilicon - Market outlook: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. The supply and demand are both weak, and the 11 - 12 month period will see a small inventory reduction [8] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] 4. Hedging Recommendations - It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer enterprises conduct long - hedging [9]