螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20251102

Report Title - Threaded Steel & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report [1] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - In the off-season, trade based on expectations and focus on rebound opportunities [3] Summary by Directory Macro Environment - Overseas: US inflation unexpectedly declined in September, boosting the valuation of pro-cyclical commodities. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders had positive results, leading to a temporary improvement in the macro environment [5][9] - Domestic: Manufacturing and infrastructure investment declined due to the "anti-involution" effect. To ensure the economy escapes the deflationary spiral, demand-side efforts are needed in the medium to long term. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the domestic focus shifted back to "anti-involution" trading [5][8] Black Industry Chain - The peak season demand was weaker than expected. To maintain inventory levels, supply must be reduced, which requires price drops and profit compression. As scrap steel for electric furnaces is a high-cost iron element, attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of electric furnaces [5] Threaded Steel - Base Price and Spread: Last week, the spot price of Shanghai threaded steel was 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3106 (+60) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 124 (-30) yuan/ton, and the 01-05 spread was -60 (+3) yuan/ton [20] - Demand: New home sales remained at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remained high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. Demand showed a seasonal increase but was still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [21][24][25] - MS Weekly Data: Supply was at a low level while demand increased, and the inventory level was healthy [26] - Production Profit: Due to the revision of production restriction expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the spot profit of threaded steel was 52 (-37) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 59 (-3) yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit of East China threaded steel was 40 (-7) yuan/ton [31][34] Hot-Rolled Coil - Base Price and Spread: Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3308 (+58) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 22 (-18) yuan/ton, and the 01-05 spread was -10 (+5) yuan/ton [39] - Demand: The production schedules of the home appliance and automotive industries were poor, resulting in a lackluster peak season. However, export profits were favorable, and exports remained at a high level [40][44] - MS Weekly Data: Demand increased, and inventory decreased [48] - Production Profit: Due to the revision of production restriction expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the spot profit of hot-rolled coil was -8 (-26) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 111 (-5) yuan/ton [51][53] Variety Spread Structure - Pay attention to the opportunity of an expanding cold-hot spread [54] Variety Regional Difference - Analyze the price differences of threaded steel, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil among different regions [63] Cold Roll and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Present the seasonal data of cold-rolled and medium-thick plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption [69][70]