棉花：预计震荡等待新的驱动

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton had a strong rebound, with a weekly increase of over 2%, driven by optimistic expectations of international economic and trade situations. However, its further rise requires actual improvement in US cotton export data, and it's hard to confirm if it can break the downward trend since June. - Domestic cotton futures maintained a rebound but slowed around 13,650. With the average cost of new - cotton confirmed, the market focus returns to supply - demand. In the short term, the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures is restricted, but high basis and relatively low prices provide support, and it is expected to fluctuate [1][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 64.50 cents/pound, reached a high of 66.10 cents/pound, a low of 64.34 cents/pound, and closed at 65.56 cents/pound, with a rise of 1.38 cents and a 2.15% increase. Trading volume was 153,137 lots, an increase of 63,079 lots, and open interest was 142,193 lots, a decrease of 12,093 lots [4]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 13,550 yuan/ton, reached a high of 13,675 yuan/ton, a low of 13,520 yuan/ton, and closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, with a rise of 55 yuan and a 0.41% increase. Trading volume was 879,461 lots, a decrease of 278,007 lots, and open interest was 578,141 lots, a decrease of 12,768 lots [4]. - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Opened at 19,810 yuan/ton, reached a high of 19,985 yuan/ton, a low of 19,730 yuan/ton, and closed at 19,875 yuan/ton, with a rise of 65 yuan and a 0.33% increase. Trading volume was 65,379 lots, an increase of 3,945 lots, and open interest was 23,426 lots, a decrease of 624 lots [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: Rebounded strongly, driven by optimistic expectations of international economic and trade situations, including a phased trade agreement between China and the US and new agreements between the US and other Asian countries [5]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Suspended due to the US government shutdown [6]. - Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries - India: Seed - cotton listing was less than the same period last year. Tropical cyclone Monsa affected cotton fields, and the daily arrival of seed - cotton was estimated at 60,000 - 70,000 bales. Textile production index rose in September, while the clothing manufacturing index declined [7]. - Brazil: Cotton exports rebounded slightly in October. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, weak demand, and falling international cotton prices, the export price competitiveness of cotton in Mato Grosso decreased. However, cottonseed and cottonseed oil were supported by strong demand. The estimated export volume in the first half of October was 255,000 tons, and the full - month volume was expected to reach 300,000 tons [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remained average. The estimated cotton output this year was 6.85 million bales, lower than the target. The local cotton price was stable, and the import demand was further suppressed by the rise in New York cotton futures prices. Local yarn demand was weak [8]. - Bangladesh: Cotton imports increased in September, reaching 152,250 tons, the highest since June 2024. Brazilian cotton was the main import source. Spinning enterprises faced high costs, difficulties in financing and obtaining letters of credit, and competition from low - priced Indian imported yarn [9]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry: As of the week of October 31, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 66.5%, 61.5%, and 65.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Spot Market: Spot transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the basis weakened slightly. Spinning mills' cotton raw material inventory increased, but there was a gap between large and small mills [11]. - Seed - cotton Purchase: The purchase price of machine - picked seed - cotton in Xinjiang remained stable. The purchase in northern Xinjiang was almost over, and the cost of new - cotton was basically confirmed [12]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of October 31, there were 2,414 registered warehouse receipts and 1,444 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 3,858 lots, equivalent to 162,036 tons [12]. - Downstream Market: The cotton yarn market was quiet, with spinning mills selling at reasonable prices. The export of high - count yarn was good. The cotton cloth market was also dull, with weak orders and inventory accumulation. The overall operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory of spinning mills increased slightly [13]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provided 14 charts related to cotton, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, etc. [15][16][17] 4. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton's support at around 63 cents/pound is basically confirmed, but it's hard to confirm if it can break the downward trend since June. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the rebound is restricted by new - cotton listing and hedging demand of ginning mills, but high basis and relatively low prices provide support, which may be more obvious near the delivery month [18].