Core Insights - The report emphasizes a cautious yet progressive investment strategy for November, highlighting the current state of the A-share market as stable but with signs of cooling trading sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Linkage Indicators - The asset linkage indicators remain at relatively low levels, with stock-bond correlation metrics indicating a retreat in the relative allocation value of stocks compared to bonds, with the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) stabilizing below one standard deviation [2][4]. - The current PE ratio for the Wind All A index is 22.0, with most broad-based indices' PE ratios around the 60th percentile historically, indicating that valuations are still relatively low [2][4]. - The holding stock-bond yield difference is at 6.05%, reflecting a historical percentile of 66.2%, suggesting potential upward movement in this metric [12][15]. Group 2: Market Configuration Indicators - The report notes that the valuation dispersion is at a historical median level, with the current position close to that of May 2023, indicating a stable valuation environment [19][22]. - The PE ratio for the ChiNext index is around the 35th percentile, while the STAR 50 index remains at a historically high level, indicating significant valuation differentiation [19][22]. Group 3: Market Trading/Sentiment Indicators - Trading activity has cooled compared to the previous month, with turnover rates and transaction volumes showing a decline, although they remain above historical medians [2][26]. - The maximum daily transaction volume as a percentage of previous highs is at 77%, indicating a slight decrease in market trading enthusiasm compared to the previous month [29][30]. - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has increased to 78.75%, suggesting a recovery in individual stock performance [34]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The scale of stock buybacks has decreased to 9.281 billion, reflecting a cautious approach from companies in the current market environment [37][38]. - The net reduction in industrial capital was 30.701 billion, indicating a narrowing of the reduction scale compared to the previous month, suggesting a more stable outlook from major shareholders [40][41]. - The three major funding entities' indicator is at 0.40, showing a slight decline from the previous month, with improvements noted in the Hong Kong international intermediary indicators [43].
11月,稳中求进A股动静框架之静态指标
Tianfeng Securities·2025-11-02 12:13