Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-02 12:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting a potential price rebound for thermal coal due to seasonal demand and tightening supply conditions [3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of October 31, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port remained stable, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a tightening market due to increased safety inspections and rising transportation costs [3][20]. - The report anticipates that after a price adjustment, thermal coal prices are expected to rise in November, driven by winter heating demand [3][9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with elastic demand for thermal coal, such as Jinkong Coal Industry and Huayang Co., as well as undervalued stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huabei Mining [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report outlines that Henan Province aims to stabilize coal production at 100 million tons by 2027, with a focus on increasing the proportion of intelligent mining [8]. - The National Energy Administration has implemented a credit system for the energy sector to enhance transparency and accountability [8]. 2. Price Trends for Thermal and Coking Coal - As of October 31, thermal coal prices in various regions showed slight declines, with Dazhong South District reporting a decrease of 15 CNY/ton to 600 CNY/ton [9]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with Shanxi Gujiao 2 coking coal maintaining a price of 1595 CNY/ton [12]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell to 65.07 USD/barrel, a decrease of 1.32% from the previous week [15]. - The report notes an increase in the ratio of international oil prices to coal prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15][18]. 4. Port Inventory and Transportation Costs - The report states that coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 23.16 million tons, a drop of 3.46% week-on-week [20]. - Domestic coastal shipping costs fell to 45.33 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.25% decrease [27]. 5. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting their stock prices and market capitalizations, with China Shenhua at 42.51 CNY and a market cap of 844.6 billion CNY [33].