有色及贵金属周报合集-20251102

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Tin - Tin prices rebounded slightly this week with a volatile performance. The price rose above 290,000 yuan due to the Indonesian event and macro - sentiment but then fell back. The fundamentals show opposite changes in domestic and overseas inventories. There is no clear direction in the short - term, and prices are more likely to follow macro guidance [8]. Copper - Macro and micro factors still present positive aspects for copper, and there is support at the lower price level. Although there are some negative factors such as Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut, the long - term positive logic in the micro - level still exists, and copper prices are expected to have long - position allocation value after a correction [101]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Transaction Aspect - Spot: The LME 0 - 3 premium is 40 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums have declined [12][17]. - Spread: The tin monthly structure has changed from B to C [21]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased by 144 tons, and futures inventory increased by 22 tons. LME inventory increased by 125 tons, and the canceled warrant ratio dropped to 4.35% [27][32]. - Funds: As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 199,379 million yuan, and the funds flowed in in the past 10 days [37]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Shanghai tin's trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly. LME tin's trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest continued to rise [39][44]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin increased slightly [49]. Supply Aspect - Tin Ore: In July 2025, the tin concentrate output was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In September 2025, the import volume was 8,714 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton [53][54]. - Smelting: In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 10,510 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces decreased slightly to 68.72% [59][61]. - Import: In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,269 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, and the net exports were 1,748 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 15,453 yuan/ton [67]. Demand Aspect - Consumption Volume: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 10,031 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,032 tons [75]. - Tin Products: This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of solder enterprises in September increased by 784.8%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [78]. - Terminal Consumption: In September 2025, the terminal output showed different performances. The output of integrated circuits, electronics, and smartphones increased monthly. In the household appliance sector, the output of air - conditioners increased, and the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded this week, in line with the performance of tin prices [85][92]. Copper Transaction Aspect - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper decreased, while that of LME copper increased. The LME copper price volatility was around 16%, and the Shanghai copper volatility was around 23% [107]. - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end C structure expanded [109][111]. - Open Interest: The open interest of LME, SHFE, and COMEX copper increased, with Shanghai copper's open interest increasing by 10,000 lots to 593,600 lots [112]. - Funds and Industry Open Interest: The net short - position of LME commercial enterprises increased, and the net long - position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises decreased [118]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium declined. The US copper premium remained at a high level, and the Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums remained stable [121][123]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory decreased, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing significantly. The COMEX inventory increased, and the LME copper inventory decreased [124][126]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of LME copper increased, while that of Shanghai copper was at a low level compared with the same period in history [127]. Supply Aspect - Copper Concentrate: The year - on - year import increased, and the processing fee remained weak. - Recycled Copper: The year - on - year import volume increased, and the domestic output increased significantly year - on - year. The ticket rate was low, the refined - scrap spread widened, and the import loss narrowed. - Blister Copper: The import decreased, and the processing fee was at a low level. - Refined Copper: The output and import increased year - on - year, but the spot import of refined copper suffered a large loss [104]. Demand Aspect - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in September increased month - on - month. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods was at a low level compared with the same period in history, and the processing fee of copper tubes decreased. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. - Consumption: The apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was still an important support. The output of air - conditioners decreased, and the output of new - energy vehicles was at a high level compared with the same period in history [104].