铅产业链周度报告-20251102

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing, with the production of primary lead rising and the production of secondary lead expected to increase due to high profits and abundant supply of waste batteries. Meanwhile, consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the price of lead is expected to be under pressure [3][7]. - The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a low level in the same period of history. However, the ratio of the position to inventory of the SHFE lead contract 11 is at a low level in the same period of history, indicating that the spot market lacks support for the price [7]. - In unilateral trading, it is expected that the rise of lead prices will be limited. It is recommended to close long positions. If the increase in domestic inventory is realized later, short - position allocation can be tentatively carried out. In terms of spreads, the domestic lead inventory may increase, and the long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage should continue to be held [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects - Price and Spread: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.20%. The LME lead 3 - month contract closed at 1,970.5 last week, with a decline of 2.28%. The LME lead basis improved by 10.16, the bonded area lead premium decreased by 17.5, and the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead remained unchanged at - 75. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 120 [8]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,403 tons to 21,645 tons, the SHFE total inventory decreased by 334 tons to 35,999 tons, the social inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 29,800 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,075 tons to 220,300 tons, with the cancellation ratio decreasing by 5.07% to 62.44% [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract decreased by 31,195 lots to 48,319 lots, and the open interest decreased by 15,662 lots to 68,184 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3 - month contract increased by 381 lots to 5,372 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,194 lots to 142,000 lots [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - Lead Concentrate: The processing fee of lead concentrate has been weak. The production, import volume, actual consumption, and operating rate of lead concentrate in China are presented in the report, along with the inventory in Lianyungang. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown [5][26][27]. - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead is increasing, and the production of secondary lead is expected to increase due to high profits. The production and operating rates of primary lead, secondary lead, and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are provided. The by - products of primary lead, such as silver and sulfuric acid, are also mentioned [7][31][32]. - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are presented. The net import, import volume, export volume, and import profit and loss of refined lead are also included [38][40][41][42]. 3.3 Lead Demand - Lead - Acid Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is declining, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are presented. The export volume of batteries is also shown [46]. - End - Use Consumption: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are provided to reflect the end - use demand for lead [48].