纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term contradiction of styrene is not significant, with expectations of reduced operation, inventory reduction, and neutral profit. The absolute valuation of pure benzene is low, and the chemical fundamentals are still weak, but the oil - blending price difference has opened. Attention should be paid to the incremental demand in the future. [3][99] - Currently, pure benzene faces triple pressures: weak downstream demand, poor purchasing willingness, and the return of supply with the opening of regional arbitrage. The downstream profit has been further squeezed during the recent decline of pure benzene, and the terminal demand is weak. [3][99] - The downstream 3S hard rubber of styrene has entered a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. The terminal downstream demand has not improved, and attention should be paid to whether the easing of the trade war will bring marginal demand increments after the Sino - US negotiation. The short - term absolute price will mainly fluctuate. [3][99] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and it will gradually decrease to 30,000 - 50,000 tons after October - November. New production capacity of 56,000 tons was put into operation in September, and 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. [3][99] - Imports: The import volume in September is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import volume of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports in November - December. The overseas supply pressure is still large. [3][99] 3.1.2 Demand - Styrene: The maintenance in September was concentrated, with a loss of 79,000 tons, mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. There will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons from October to November, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. At the same time, the new production of styrene is still being put into operation, and it is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will be put into operation in November, with an additional monthly output of 40,000 tons. [3][99] - Caprolactam: The CPL operation is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The current inventory of downstream raw materials is at a neutral level. [3][99] - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to put it into operation in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand. [3][99] - Aniline: The maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation has recovered. [3][99] 3.1.3 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: Based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. The EB processing fee will expand the profit in the short - term, but the space is limited, mainly fluctuating. [3][99] - Strategy: For the single - side operation, stop the loss of short positions; there is no strategy for the inter - period and cross - variety operations. [3][99] 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Production and Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene production contracted. Currently, it is in a situation of high inventory, low profit, and neutral production. [78][80] 3.2.2 Downstream Situation - The downstream 3S hard rubber is in a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. [3][99] 3.2.3 Strategy - The short - term absolute price will mainly fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issue of the ratio of aromatics to olefins. [3][99]