煤炭：煤价暂稳蓄力，焦炭第三轮提涨开启

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that stabilizing coal prices is crucial for reversing the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, which narrowed to a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September. The correlation between coal prices and PPI suggests that coal prices need to stabilize, with the lowest point expected to be a policy bottom in 2025. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to emerge as competition is regulated [5][6] - The coal industry is positioned within an energy transformation era, where strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties are expected to limit supply. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source will remain unchanged in the short term, with prices likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend due to rigid supply and rising costs [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Price Overview - As of October 31, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is stable at 770 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 79 CNY/ton (9.3%) [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.451 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.1 thousand tons and a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [3][39] - The report notes a significant increase in coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port, reaching 590 thousand tons, a week-on-week increase of 37 thousand tons (6.7%) [3][56] Coking Coal Overview - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang port is 1760 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 20 CNY/ton (1.1%) [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758 thousand tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.3 thousand tons and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][71] - The report indicates that the coking coal inventory at independent coking plants is 905.7 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20.1 tons (2.27%) [4][71] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Guanghui Energy, are also recommended [6] - The report highlights companies with globally scarce resources, such as Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as attractive investment targets [6]