冶炼端反内卷利好频出，持续看好工业金属价格

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry [3] Core Views - The report expresses a positive outlook on industrial metal prices due to favorable developments in the smelting sector and tight supply conditions [1] - In the precious metals sector, global gold demand increased in Q3 2025, with ETF investments becoming a significant driver of demand [1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key companies such as Xinyi Silver Tin, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining among others [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In the first three quarters of 2025, global gold demand reached 3,717 tons, an increase of 45 tons year-on-year, with ETFs accounting for 17% of investment demand, up 644 tons year-on-year [1][32] - Q3 2025 saw a total gold demand of 1,313 tons, up 86 tons from the previous quarter, driven by significant ETF purchases and strong demand for gold bars and coins [1][32] Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices are supported by a combination of smelting sector developments and tight supply conditions. Recent macroeconomic factors have reduced uncertainty, and inventory levels have shown mixed trends [1] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is experiencing strong sentiment, with production levels stable despite some regional reductions due to environmental controls [1] - Nickel: Demand remains robust, particularly for nickel sulfate, driven by the growth in the electric vehicle sector [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have fluctuated, with recent increases in production and demand from the battery sector. Concerns about supply recovery have led to price volatility [1] - Cobalt: Supply remains constrained, with high prices expected to persist due to strong demand from the battery market [1] Key Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Lingnan, and China Hongqiao among others for potential investment opportunities [1][6]