11月固定收益月报：机构行为再平衡，债市或维持震荡-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market institutions reached re - balance under the policy events in October after the redemption panic before October. The current bond market has fully priced in the resumption of treasury bond trading, and the central bank's move is mainly to support fiscal efforts and supplement bank liquidity, with a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium - to - long - term [1][8][10]. - In October, the bond market yield declined rapidly under Trump's tariff measures, but the decline was much smaller than in April. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the bond market yield did not show an obvious rebound. Investors have certain "learning ability", and the bond market prices faster but with a smaller decline in yield. The long - position sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but institutions are more cautious compared to April [1][17][18]. - The bond market is likely to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy, appropriately control the duration level in trading, seize trading opportunities from oversold rebounds, and pay attention to reverse operations [1][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 11 - month Bond Market Outlook - The expectation of the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading started when large banks continuously bought short - term bonds in the secondary market and was realized after Governor Pan Gongsheng's announcement. The bond market yield generally declined on the day of the announcement, and institutions' behavior in bond trading has changed compared to 2024 [8][9]. - The central bank's move is to support fiscal efforts and supplement bank liquidity. It helps the central bank make more policy reserves, enhances the flexibility of central bank regulation, and eases the pressure on banks' liability side [10]. - The tariff measures in October had a different impact on the bond market compared to April. Investors have become more rational, and institutions' bond - buying behavior has changed. The bond market is expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as the new regulations on public fund redemption fees and the equity market [17][18][22]. 3.2 10 - month Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - In the first week, the 10 - year treasury bond rate declined to 1.82%. In the second week, it fluctuated narrowly and closed at 1.82%. In the third week, it rose to 1.85%. In the fourth week, it declined to 1.80%. The market was affected by factors such as tariff games, policy expectations, and the resumption of treasury bond trading [24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 47 billion yuan through four major tools. The funding situation was balanced and loose in October. The average monthly values of R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 declined, and the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate and other rates showed different trends [27][28]. 3.2.3 Secondary Market Trend - The long - term interest rate had a ceiling and a floor. Except for the 1 - year treasury bond, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads narrowed [35]. 3.2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In October, the weekly turnover rate of 30 - year treasury bonds decreased compared to September. The 30Y - 10Y treasury bond spread narrowed, the bank - to - bank leverage ratio declined, and the median duration of bond funds increased [43]. 3.2.5 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds continued to decline in October, while the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased significantly. The issuance scale of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds changed compared to September and 2024 [54][56][60]. 3.3 Economic Data - In October, the manufacturing supply and demand weakened, while the service industry expanded rapidly. The real - estate transaction was weak year - on - year, and travel performance was stronger than the seasonal average. Industrial production improved marginally, and infrastructure and price high - frequency data showed different trends [62][63][67]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again in October, and there were internal disagreements. The UK and German bond markets rose, and most emerging markets also showed an upward trend. The 10 - year Sino - US treasury bond yield spread narrowed [74][75][77]. 3.5 Major Asset Performance - In October, the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Copper strengthened, while live pigs and crude oil weakened. The performance order of major assets was: Shanghai Gold > Shanghai Copper > US Dollar > Rebar > Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds > Chinese Bonds > Convertible Bonds > CSI 300 > CSI 1000 > Crude Oil > Live Pigs [80]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple policies and events occurred in October and November, including the APEC meeting, the Sino - US leaders' meeting, and the release of policies related to funds, trusts, and the "15th Five - Year Plan". Future attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of these policies [84][85][90].