能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience weak performance due to cost reduction. Short - term butadiene weakness will drive down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. In the context of a neutral fundamental pattern of butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. With weakened macro - drivers and a weak industrial chain fundamental background, butadiene rubber will operate weakly. The main focus in the future is whether the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve periodically under the background of concentrated maintenance in November and a high NR - BR spread [4]. - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Viewpoints on Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the current cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Sichuan Shun were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene plant of Qilu Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate decreased significantly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64%. The production capacity utilization rate was 66.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76 percentage points. In the next cycle, it is expected that Zhenhua New Materials' plant will be shut down for maintenance, and there are expectations of maintenance for Maoming's butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant in November. The short - term shortage of some spot goods is expected to continue [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next cycle, with most enterprises maintaining their current production schedules. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will drive up the production capacity utilization rate. However, in November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. During this cycle, some production enterprises shut down or prepared to shut down, and the significant weakening of the raw material side led to the gradual restoration of production profits, driving some private production enterprises to sell at low prices. At the same time, affected by the approaching month - end and the weak future market, the negotiation focus of the spot side gradually declined, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased significantly [4]. Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in butadiene arrivals, the dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation for the market is around 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (with a single - month holding cost of around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot goods and short - selling in the futures market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upper space of the market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation range is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber is mainly estimated based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliary agents + labor)=7,500 * 1.02 + 2,500≈10,200 yuan/ton. In terms of actual full cost, the fixed costs range from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton depending on the factory, so the minimum cost is about 9,500 yuan/ton (7,500 * 1.02+1,800). Due to the significant contradictions in the short - term butadiene industry and the continuous decline of the price center, the lower limit of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber continues to decline [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games during the day. The upper pressure level is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support level is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton (anchored by the butadiene cost of butadiene rubber) [4]. - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints on Butadiene Supply - During the current cycle (October 24 - 30, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 104,200 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Guangzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical remained shut down, but the output of Beifang Huajin, Qilu Petrochemical, and a Shandong petrochemical plant No. 2 resumed, leading to an increase in production. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 106,300 tons, continuing to increase compared to the current cycle. Sichuan Petrochemical is expected to restart after a short - term shutdown, and attention should be paid to the output of Fushun Petrochemical and the commissioning of new production capacity in South China. It is expected that domestic production will increase slightly [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will decrease. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with little change [5]. Inventory - During the current cycle (October 23 - 29, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% compared to last week, and the enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly due to limited plant changes during the cycle. The inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% compared to last week. There were imported vessels arriving at ports during the week, and the rapid decline in the market led to slow turnover of some trade volumes, resulting in a significant increase in inventory. At the same time, the market expects that the import volume will still be abundant from October to November, so attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Viewpoint - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material side [8]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production has been continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industrial chains at certain stages [10]. - From 2024 to 2025, many enterprises have added or are expected to add butadiene production capacity, with a total of 380,000 tons added in 2024 and 860,000 tons expected to be added in 2025 [12]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Supply of Butadiene Rubber - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber plants of various enterprises have changed. Some plants are shut down for maintenance, some are restarted, and some have future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical's plant is shut down for maintenance, Qilu Petrochemical's plant has restarted, and Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in November [41]. - The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown certain trends over time [42][43][44]. - The import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have their own characteristics over different time periods, and the weekly apparent demand also shows corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, and these inventories have changed over time [49][50][51]. Demand for Butadiene Rubber - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends over time [53][54].