Camel Group(SH:601311) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-02 12:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main business is stable, with a slight pressure on profits in Q3 2025. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 12.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 619 million yuan, up 27.0% year-on-year. However, the net profit in Q3 2025 showed a significant decline of 49.8% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is focusing on a dual low-voltage battery technology solution of "lead-acid + lithium battery," which is expected to drive stable growth in the automotive lead-acid battery sector and reduce losses in the low-voltage lithium battery business through economies of scale [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 87 million yuan, down 49.8% year-on-year and down 70.4% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 960 million, 1.272 billion, and 1.449 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 1.08, and 1.24 yuan [4][7] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14.079 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.843 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [7][9] Business Segment Insights - The low-voltage lithium battery segment is experiencing rapid growth, with revenue of approximately 353 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 196%. The gross margin for this segment improved from 12.3% in 2024 to 15% in H1 2025 [6][7] - The company is actively adjusting its production and sales rhythm in response to the competitive landscape in the recycled lead industry, which has seen a decline in gross margins [5][6]