11月，预期在变，利率变不变？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 10 - year Treasury bond may break below 1.75% (250016) and reach a new low by the end of the year (250011 breaking below 1.6%). The trend of bond market interest rate decline will not change, as the fundamental weakness and monetary easing are the general trends, and the supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market [3]. - The final version of the fund sales new regulations may be released in November, and the impact on the bond market is considered to be positive overall. The incremental growth - stabilizing policies are mainly focused on next year. The fundamental stabilization still needs time, and the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance. The supply - demand structure is becoming more favorable for the bond market [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 10 - month Bond Market: Ready to Take Off - In October, the bond market interest rate fluctuated downward and the curve flattened. The main driving factor was the central bank's announcement to restart Treasury bond purchases, which increased the market's expectation of monetary easing. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 6.51bp to 1.80%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 8.24BP to 41.28BP [8]. - Other factors included Sino - US trade frictions and subsequent improvement in relations, the release of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the 14th Five - Year Plan, and the weakening of the fundamentals [8][9]. 3.2 Historical Performance of the Bond Market in November - Historically, in November, Treasury bond interest rates mostly declined, which was related to macro data pressure, policy implementation, and institutional cross - year allocation demands. There were only two significant adjustments in 2020 and 2022 [14]. - The release of October macro data has an impact on the November bond market trend, especially economic and financial data. The main factors to focus on in November include policy implementation, fundamental stabilization, monetary policy and capital flow, and cross - year allocation [16][17]. 3.3 Policy Implementation - Fund Sales New Regulations: The final version may be released in November, which may cause a structural impact on the bond market. However, the overall view on regulatory impact is positive. The demand for bonds will not disappear, and the central bank has set an upper limit for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. After the policy is implemented, the bond market may experience a situation of "bad news is out" [18][19]. - Incremental Growth - Stabilizing Policies: There have been incremental policies in the broad - sense fiscal area to hedge against the economic downturn pressure. The subsequent focus is on next year, and attention should be paid to the possible impact of policy expectations [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Stabilization - Recently, the demand and price of rebar have shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the cement price remains at a low level. The PPI and bill interest rates indicate that the effect of previous incremental policies is not significant, and the fundamental stabilization still needs time [4]. 3.5 Supportive Monetary Policy Stance - The central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance. The probability of an overall interest rate cut within the year is limited, but DR001 can decline to OMO - 20bp, and the market expectation can further ferment. The restart of Treasury bond purchases is beneficial to the bond market, and the long - term and ultra - long - term yield spreads can continue to compress [4]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Structure Favors the Bond Market - Supply Side: The supply of government bonds is decreasing, and credit is relatively sluggish, which is conducive to pushing down interest rates [4]. - Demand Side: The central bank's restart of bond purchases, the low - level replenishment of institutional duration, and the cross - year allocation market are all beneficial to the bond market. The cross - year allocation will not be absent, and non - bank institutions have shown a trend of net buying in the secondary market recently [4].