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地产压力下政策出台概率逐步提升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-11-02 12:45

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials sector [3]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with cement prices under pressure while glass and fiberglass manufacturing show positive trends. The overall sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.75% during the week [1][12]. - Government policies aimed at alleviating financial pressures on local governments are expected to improve the fiscal environment, potentially accelerating municipal engineering projects [1]. - The glass market is facing supply-demand imbalances, but self-regulation among photovoltaic glass manufacturers may help ease these tensions [1]. - Consumer building materials are recommended due to their potential benefits from second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [1]. - The cement industry is still in a demand bottoming phase, with production adjustments being made to stabilize prices [1][17]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 31, 2025, the national cement price index is 347.34 CNY/ton, up 1.07% week-on-week. Cement output reached 2.8265 million tons, an increase of 8.05% from the previous week [17]. - The cement market is characterized by stable growth in infrastructure, while residential construction lags behind [17]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1202.68 CNY/ton, down 3.30% from the previous week. Inventory levels have decreased, indicating some recovery in demand [2][5]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - Fiberglass prices have stabilized, with demand for high-end products remaining strong. The market is expected to see price increases in the medium to long term [5]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is showing signs of weak recovery, influenced by fluctuations in upstream raw material prices [6]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs reported at 106,100 CNY/ton, leading to negative margins for many producers [6]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - North New Building Materials (Buy) - Weixing New Materials (Accumulate) - Sankeshu (Buy) - China Jushi (Buy) - Yinlong Co. (Buy) - Puyang Refractories (Buy) [7].