矿石现货成交稀少，部分氧化铝企业焙烧减产

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price stabilized last week, but the futures price continued a weak trend. The supply - demand situation shows an oversupply, yet the reduction in supply is limited and slow. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the downward rhythm and amplitude gradually being compressed [13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Supply in Guangxi improved after the rainy season, while production in Shanxi and Henan showed no significant increase. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term. Guinea resources are priced at CIF 71 - 72 dollars/ton, but the procurement intention of downstream alumina enterprises is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. Newly - arrived ore was 415.6 million tons during the period, including 302.1 million tons from Guinea and 97.2 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China remained high at 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - Alumina: The spot price stabilized. The ALD northern comprehensive price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2810 - 2870 yuan/ton, and the domestic weighted index rose by 1.2 yuan/ton to 2871.2 yuan/ton. The import port price remained unchanged. The market price is approaching the cash - flow cost in Shanxi and Henan. The import profit in the north is about 12 yuan/ton. The full cost of domestic alumina is 2872 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 58 yuan/ton. Most enterprises maintained high production, but some suspended roasting due to heavy pollution warnings. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.75 million tons in operation, a decrease of 900,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - Demand: Both domestic and overseas demand remained unchanged. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.253 million tons, and the overseas was 29.551 million tons, both unchanged from last week [13] - Inventory: As of October 30, the national alumina inventory was 4.13 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons from last week. The inventory at the receiving end increased, the inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/narrowly fluctuated [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 237,167 tons, an increase of 15,910 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - Tendering Result of a Northwest Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprise: On October 31, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina, with the delivered price at about 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 23 [16] - Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina: As of October 31, the Australian alumina price was about 316 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.5 dollars/ton from last week. The cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the import profit was about 12 yuan/ton [16] - Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei: Affected by heavy pollution control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei stopped 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and planned to resume gradually on October 31, with a temporary reduction in shipping volume but no impact on medium - term production [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost Side: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume of major importing countries, sea - floating inventory, as well as domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][20][29][31][33] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It includes domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina [36][38][41][44] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, yards/platforms/in - transit, the total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]