固定收益定期：存单偏弱的原因与修复前景

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market entered a repair period this week, with yields across all tenors generally declining. The subsequent repair market may continue as the risk factors that led to the bond market adjustment in the third quarter receded and the central bank stabilized market expectations [1][8]. - During the bond market repair, certificates of deposit (CDs) lagged. The CD yields remained relatively high, constraining the overall short - term interest rates. This was mainly due to the reduction of CD holdings by banks and foreign investors [2][9]. - In the short term, the constraints on CD yields may ease, and CD yields are expected to decline. A dumbbell - shaped allocation strategy is recommended, and the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to recover to 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [5][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Repair - This week, the bond market repaired rapidly, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields dropping 5.3bps and 7.0bps to 1.8% and 2.14% respectively, and the 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bond yields falling 9.1bps and 7.7bps. The 1 - year AAA CD yield dropped 4.8bps to 1.63% [1][8]. - In the third quarter, the bond market performance deviated from the fundamentals and capital situation, which was due to increased risk appetite and the digestion of previous over - increases. Currently, with fundamental pressure and a growing asset shortage, interest rates may decline, and the central bank's decision to resume Treasury bond trading stabilized market expectations, so the bond market repair may continue [1][8]. Reasons for High CD Yields - Reduction in Allocation by Banks and Foreign Investors: From March to September this year, the total CD custody decreased by 1.2 trillion yuan. Banks reduced their CD holdings by 1.25 trillion yuan, with large - scale banks and rural commercial banks reducing the most, and foreign investors reduced their holdings by 421.7 billion yuan. In contrast, broad - based funds increased their holdings by 34.6 billion yuan [2][12]. - Banks' Regulatory Pressure: This year, banks' liability - side duration has shortened, while the asset - side duration has lengthened, leading to a deeper mismatch between assets and liabilities. Some joint - stock banks are close to the regulatory red line of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR). In October, the joint - stock banks with the greatest pressure on this indicator had a net CD financing of 624.4 billion yuan, which weakened banks' CD allocation [3][13]. - Exchange Rate Impact on Foreign Investors: As the RMB exchange rate shifted from depreciation pressure to appreciation pressure, the forward premium decreased, causing foreign investors engaged in bond market arbitrage to withdraw. From April to September, foreign investors' CD holdings decreased from 1.3 trillion yuan to 856.1 billion yuan, with an average monthly decrease of 8.43 billion yuan [4][18]. Outlook for CD Yields - Easing of Constraints: In October, the large - scale net CD financing of 797.3 billion yuan effectively alleviated banks' liability pressure and future financing needs. Foreign investors' CD holdings are expected to drop to around 60 billion yuan by the end of the year, with limited room for further decline, so the short - term constraints on CD yields may ease [4][20]. Investment Strategy - A dumbbell - shaped strategy is recommended. It can control risks through duration and potentially benefit from the overall interest rate decline and narrowing spreads. It is expected that interest rates will decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to recover to 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [5][21].