GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-11-02 13:22Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor sector, indicating that the absolute allocation value is gradually becoming apparent, with specific recommendations for various companies [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins, particularly in the high-end and regional segments. The report highlights that the industry is at a turning point, with potential for recovery as supply clears and demand stabilizes [2][3]. - In the beverage sector, leading companies are maintaining high growth rates, while the snack food segment shows a mixed performance, with some companies achieving remarkable growth through product innovation and channel expansion [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in the restaurant supply chain, with seasonal income improvements despite competitive pressures in pricing [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Industry - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector reported revenues of 786.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, with net profits down 22.0% to 280.6 billion. This marks the largest quarterly decline since 2013 [2][12]. - The high-end liquor segment saw revenues of 546.6 billion, down 15.0%, while regional liquor revenues fell by 35.2% [2][15]. - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showed slight revenue increases, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao experienced declines exceeding 50% [2][19]. 2. Beverage and Snack Food - The beverage sector achieved Q3 revenues of 123.1 billion, up 11.3%, with net profits increasing by 30.2% to 22.2 billion. The overall growth in the beverage sector is driven by leading brands like Dongpeng Beverage [3][21]. - The snack food segment reported Q3 revenues of 133.8 billion, a slight decline of 1.0%, with net profits down 32.9% to 7.6 billion, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in this area [3][8]. 3. Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain reported Q3 revenues of 112.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, although net profits decreased by 6.3% to 5.2 billion, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures [4][7]. - The beer segment showed a slight revenue increase of 0.5% in Q3, with net profits rising by 7.4% to 28.3 billion, indicating resilience in the face of weak demand [4][7]. 4. Dairy and Health Products - The dairy sector reported Q3 revenues of 443.7 billion, down 1.5%, but net profits increased by 0.7% to 34.6 billion, suggesting a stabilization in profitability [8][19]. - The health products segment saw significant growth, with Q3 revenues of 59.7 billion, up 12.4%, and net profits soaring by 66.0% to 6.0 billion, highlighting a strong recovery in this area [8][19].