南华期货PX-TA产业周报：“反内卷”传闻助力情绪回暖，加工费低位修复-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, influenced by the "anti - involution" rumor, the industrial sentiment of PTA has significantly improved, and some short - position funds have reduced their positions to avoid risks. The supply - side of PTA has many maintenance plans in November, and the downstream polyester demand has exceeded expectations after the weather turns cold. The supply - demand of PTA has improved marginally, and the price has rebounded from a low level. However, the expectation of PTA surplus remains unchanged, and the structural contradiction of PX - TA suppresses the repair space of PTA processing fees. The expected price of crude oil on the cost side is also bearish [1]. - In the short term, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side. For operation, consider short - selling on rallies when the single - side 01 contract is above 4700. Regarding processing fees, it is recommended to expand the spread when the TA01 contract processing fee is below 250 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" rumor has improved market sentiment, and the supply - demand of PTA has marginally improved. However, the surplus expectation and structural contradictions still exist [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Recent Strategy Review: Two PTA processing - fee expansion strategies have achieved profit - taking. The first one entered the market on 2025/10/27 (cost 250) and exited on 2025/10/28 (290 exit, profit spread +40). The second one entered on 2025/9/22 (cost 278) and exited on 2025/9/30 (305 exit, profit spread +27) [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Polyester Price Range Forecast: The price ranges of ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle chips are 3800 - 4300, 6000 - 6800, 4250 - 4750, and 5300 - 5900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentile of volatilities in 3 years are also provided [10]. - PTA Hedging Strategy: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about PTA price decline, it is recommended to short - sell PTA futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy PTA futures to lock in procurement costs [10]. 3.1.4 Trend Judgement and Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Wide - range fluctuations. - Price Range: The TA2601 contract fluctuates in the range of 4400 - 4750. - Strategy Recommendations: Consider short - selling on rallies when the 01 contract is above 4700. For the TA01 contract processing fee, it is recommended to expand the spread when it is below 240 [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The "anti - involution" policy is proposed, and trade frictions between China and the US have eased. Some PTA devices have reduced their loads [14][15]. - Negative Information: A new PTA device of Dushan Energy has been put into operation [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - Monitor the sustainability of polyester load and terminal orders, the implementation of PX and PTA device restart and maintenance plans, and the follow - up measures of the "anti - involution" symposium [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: This week, the PTA disk oscillated in the range of 4500 - 4700. After a downward oscillation, the price rebounded, the position increased, and the trend degree turned positive [18]. - Fund Movement: Recently, the net short - position of key PTA seats has decreased, while that of PX has increased. Some funds have transferred short - positions from PTA to PX to avoid risks [20]. - Monthly Spread Structure: The PTA monthly spread has strengthened slightly, showing a small C - structure, indicating that the inter - monthly contradiction is not obvious [22]. - Basis Structure: The PTA spot basis has mainly oscillated this week, and the market expectation remains poor. There is no obvious contradiction in the spot market, and the basis lacks driving force [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Cost Tracking - Track the prices of Brent crude oil, Japanese CFR naphtha, and South Korean xylene [36]. 3.4.2 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyze the cracking spreads of international and domestic gasoline and diesel, naphtha reforming, aromatic hydrocarbon blending, and PX - TA links [37][41][57]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyze the seasonal trends of polyester comprehensive profit, POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber processing profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [59][61][62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Provide the supply - demand balance sheets of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, and inventory data [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - PX: The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. If the PTA maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled, PX is expected to accumulate about 200,000 tons of inventory in November. Currently, the PX processing fees are in a good state [71]. - PTA: A new PTA device has been put into operation, and some devices have reduced their loads. The social inventory has continued to accumulate. The PTA processing fee has been repaired but remains at a low level [72]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load has increased to 91.7%. The terminal weaving orders have improved significantly after the weather turns cold, and the long - fiber inventory has continued to decline. The polyester processing fee is in a healthy state. The bottle - chip processing fee has been continuously repaired, and its load is a determining factor for the future polyester load [85].