南华期货光伏产业周报：基本面偏弱，技术面偏强-20251102

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current short - term trading focus in the market is on whether the photovoltaic storage platform will be established in November, which will later shift to the expectation game of "centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". Be vigilant against the disturbance of false information to market sentiment during policy or nodal vacuums. The volatility of polysilicon futures is high, and investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [2][3] - The near - term trading logic (before early December) centers on whether the photovoltaic platform company will be established in mid - November and the downstream's weak willingness to accept warehouse receipts. The far - term trading logic (after early December) shows that the market is under the dual pressure of "high inventory + weak demand" [7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors influencing polysilicon futures prices are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in November, the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and the timely introduction of photovoltaic policies. The market rumor is that the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform has been postponed from mid - October to November [2] - The market shows "weak supply and demand" characteristics. Supply - side: The upstream polysilicon production in the photovoltaic industry decreased this week, and the overall inventory is still accumulating. Demand - side: The downstream silicon wafer production decreased week - on - week, and the inventory increased. Long - term demand depends on the 2026 photovoltaic policy and the increase in the grid - connected electricity price [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Base - spread strategy: Observe - Option strategy: Under low volatility, buy PS2512 - C - 58000 and PS2512 - P - 49000 [9] 1.3 Industry Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range oscillation - Price range: Oscillation range: 50000 - 57000; Low - level range: 47000 - 49000; High - level range: 58000 - 60000 - Strategy suggestions: - Unilateral strategy: Go long on the PS2601 contract at the low - level range and go short at the high - level range - Calendar - spread strategy: Long the PS2601 - PS2605 spread [11] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - On October 24, the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [12] 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events No information provided. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - Market review and technical analysis: This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 56371 yuan/ton, up 8.31% week - on - week. The trading volume was 413,800 lots, up 43.11% week - on - week, and the open interest was 258,000 lots, up 26,400 lots week - on - week. The PS2601 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, up 95 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of warehouse receipts was 9590 lots, up 170 lots week - on - week. The price showed technical characteristics of "long - position increase driving price up" and had the basis for further strengthening in the short term [14] - Option situation: The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon decreased, indicating a narrowing of actual price fluctuations. The implied volatility of at - the - money options strengthened, showing an increase in market participants' expectation of future price fluctuations. The option open - interest PCR was in a volatile state, indicating a relatively balanced power between long and short positions [17] - Capital flow: The net long - position scale showed signs of increase [19] - Calendar - spread structure: The polysilicon futures term structure was in a back structure, with a higher increase in near - month contracts and a lower increase in far - month contracts [22] - Base - spread structure: The basis of the main contract weakened this week due to the sharp rise in futures prices [25] 3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of most products in the photovoltaic industry chain were stable or slightly decreased this week. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 0.73 yuan/kg week - on - week, a decrease of 1.38% [28] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. After reaching a phased low in June, the industry's profitability has been continuously repaired. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached up to 10,000 yuan/ton. The profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [30] - From the futures perspective, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 31.61%, and the profit increased this week due to the rise in futures prices [30] Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic production: SMM's weekly polysilicon production was 28,200 tons, down 4.41% week - on - week; Baichuan's was 31,080 tons, down 1.46% week - on - week. Baichuan's weekly operating rate was 49%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [33] - Inventory: The total weekly polysilicon inventory was 507,000 tons, up 0.66% week - on - week. The inventory of production enterprises, warehouse receipts, etc. showed different degrees of increase [40] 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production was 14.24 GW, down 3.33% week - on - week - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 18.93 GW, up 2.49% week - on - week [43] 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - Production: No specific production data was provided, but the monthly production and operating rate showed seasonal characteristics - Inventory: The weekly battery cell inventory was 6.02 GW, down 15.21% week - on - week [55] 5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - Production: The monthly production and operating rate of photovoltaic modules showed seasonal characteristics - Inventory: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 31.8 GW, down 5.07% week - on - week [63] 5.5 Bidding - The photovoltaic winning bid capacity was 1073.11 MW, up 179.80% week - on - week, and the winning bid average price was 0.71 yuan/watt, down 1.39% week - on - week [66] 5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new photovoltaic installation in China showed seasonal characteristics. The data on green power generation and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power were also presented [69][70]