南华期货聚丙烯产业周报：供强需弱局势难改-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, PP will remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with upward pressure difficult to relieve. The high level of PP device maintenance can only alleviate part of the supply pressure, while the large inventory of supply and the upcoming new device production make it hard to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and weak spot trading [1]. - In the near term, the bearish trend of PP is expected to continue as it is difficult to reverse the fundamental situation. To see PP stabilize and rebound, improvements in the spot market, repair of basis, high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and no increase in imports are required [5]. - In the long term, from the production forecast in the first quarter of 2026, new PP device production will be relatively limited, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. Coupled with an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand aspect: Although recent device maintenance has alleviated some supply pressure, the large inventory of supply and the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical make it difficult to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory, weakening the demand - side support [1]. - Macro aspect: This week, crude oil prices peaked and fell. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro - environment and a general decline in chemical products. Macro - sentiment and cost - side fluctuations have a greater impact on the PP market [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Recent strategy review: A unilateral long - at - low strategy was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The predicted price range of polypropylene in the next month is 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.94% and a historical percentile of 20.9% over the past three years [11]. - Hedging strategy: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short PP2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 6,900 - 7,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 40) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy PP2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 6,500 - 6,550 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The coal price rose due to the shutdown of Shaanxi Shiyangou Coal Mine after an accident; relevant departments mentioned rectifying involution - style competition and establishing a fair and innovative business environment; a 450,000 - ton device of Quanzhou Guoheng malfunctioned and is expected to stop until November 7; two new PP lines (900,000 tons in total) of Daxie Petrochemical are expected to stop for 3 - 4 months due to upstream technical transformation [18]. - Negative information: The result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a decline [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The meeting result of OPEC+ on December's crude oil production; the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict; relevant policy recommendations after the Fourth Plenary Session [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: The market was mainly oscillating in the first half of the week and declined in the second half. This week, the trading volume decreased slightly, and the net short positions of the top five profitable seats increased significantly. Market sentiment has slightly improved, with more long - short competition [21]. - Basis structure: After speculative replenishment, downstream inventory is high, weakening spot demand. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 170 yuan/ton (weakened by 48 yuan compared to last week), - 70 yuan/ton in East China (weakened by 8 yuan), and - 40 yuan/ton in South China (strengthened by 32 yuan) [23]. - Spread structure: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - expectation and fewer PP device productions in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit situation of each production line is not optimistic. The recent increase in propane prices has led to a decline in PDH device profits, currently at - 300 yuan/ton. If the profits are further compressed, PDH devices may reduce production [31]. 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - demand Balance Sheet Deduction - From the balance sheet, the future supply - demand pressure is not too large. The key is to digest the existing inventory. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, a high demand growth rate (current apparent demand growth rate is 11%), and limited increase in imports [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 77.06% (+1.13%). This week, devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, slightly increasing the operating rate. In November, devices such as Daxie Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical will be under maintenance, but the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical and the large existing capacity make it difficult to fundamentally relieve the supply pressure [45]. 3.5.3 Import - export and Deduction - Import: Due to the weak overseas prices, some low - price PP supplies may flow into China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - Export: Weak overseas demand and the off - season for exports restrict PP exports, but some enterprises have increased export orders by reducing prices this week [48]. 3.5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.61% (+0.24%). Affected by previous price fluctuations, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and pre - empted some replenishment demand. This week, the spot market was inactive, with weak trading and a weak basis [55].