Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a strong focus on both new and second-hand housing transactions, rental services, and home decoration [12][13] - The company has a stable market position in the second-hand housing sector, with significant growth potential due to the recovery of transaction volumes and a stable commission rate [8][30] - The "One Body Three Wings" strategy aims to expand into home decoration and rental services, creating new growth avenues [8][72] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of Non-GAAP net profits increasing from 7.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.8 billion yuan in 2027 [85] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the real estate brokerage industry and is recognized as the first stock in China's residential service sector [12] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the founding team holding nearly 50% of voting rights [16][18] 2. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The second-hand housing transaction volume has shown a recovery, with a 30% year-on-year increase in 2023, reaching approximately 7.1 trillion yuan [30] - The company’s second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 13.7% to 1.1638 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 4% rise in revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [46] - The new housing business has a market share of 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with revenue growth of 29.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [62] 3. Strategic Expansion - The company is expanding its home decoration business, which has significant market potential, with the home decoration industry expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% from 2025 to 2030 [72] - The rental business has seen rapid expansion, with over 590,000 units under management as of June 30, 2025, representing an 88% year-on-year increase [78] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 103.3 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits expected to be 7.4 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan [85]
贝壳-W（02423）：砥砺深耕，进无止境