南华期货PVC周报：成本略有走强，等待出清兑现-20251102

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting PVC trends include weak demand leading to high inventory and large warrant pressure, slow supply clearance due to enterprise nature or material balance issues, and an oversupply situation caused by new PVC production capacity and insufficient domestic demand [1]. - The PVC market is currently in a state of stabilizing from a decline and entering a phase of range - bound trading, but there is still a possibility of further decline. However, the downside space is limited, and selling options may yield higher comprehensive returns than long - term bottom - fishing [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Weak demand in recent years has led to high visible inventory and large warrant pressure, suppressing the monthly spread near the risk - free level [1]. - Despite low upstream profits, supply clearance is slow due to enterprise - related or material - balance issues [1]. - This year is a peak year for new PVC production capacity, and domestic demand cannot absorb the increased volume, leading to a continuous deterioration of the fundamentals [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The PVC market is in a state of stabilizing from a decline and entering a phase of range - bound trading, with limited downside space, about 100 - 200 yuan. Selling options may have higher comprehensive returns [5]. - Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: - Basis strategy: Full - scale hedging should continue to roll in and out [6]. - Monthly spread strategy: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider selling put options on PVC and caustic soda simultaneously. The probability of loss for this position is low, and the overall risk is controllable [7]. - Recent Strategy Review: - Continue to hold PVC selling 4600PUT and SH selling 2320PUT, proposed on October 12 [8]. - Continue to hold the previous double - selling of put options and gradually sell 4900CALL in batches, proposed on October 26 [8]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: - The overall inventory in East China has decreased for the first time in the past three to four months, but the sustainability after the subsequent increase in production is uncertain [17]. - There is an expectation of price increases in Qinghai salt and inland coal due to tight supply [17]. - The Sino - US negotiation feedback is good, and the overall risk appetite has improved [17]. - Negative Information: - Formosa Plastics in Taiwan has significantly lowered the market pre - sale price for November by about $40, suppressing China's export market [12]. - Traditional industrial products remain weak, and many varieties are continuously being short - sold [12]. - Spot Transaction Information: The market continued to decline this week, but the trading volume did not increase again. The willingness to hold goods was poor, and the basis changed little [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Focus on the sunset review of anti - dumping by India, which is expected to be finalized around mid - November, with a high market expectation of continuation [18]. - Pay attention to the Politburo meeting [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: In the first half of the week, due to the positive sentiment of the Sino - US negotiation, short - sellers reduced their positions. In the second half of the week, after the negotiation results were confirmed, short - sellers increased their positions, and PVC reached a new low [19]. - Basis and Monthly Spread Structure: The basis changed little this week, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread weakened from - 292 to - 309, moving in sync with the basis [21]. 4. Conventional Industry Data Display 4.1 Inventory Changes and Pre - sales - Various inventory data, including PVC warehouse receipt quantity, social inventory, factory inventory, and upstream net inventory, are presented seasonally [23][25][31]. 4.2 Disk Indicators and Spot - Multiple disk indicators, such as futures trading volume, open interest, basis, and monthly spread, are shown seasonally [37][38][44]. 4.3 Industrial Chain Production Profit Situation - The production profit data of different links in the PVC industrial chain, including chlorine - alkali, ethylene - based, and related by - products, are presented seasonally [66][68][79]. 4.4 Output Situation - New production capacity plans from 2024 to 2026 are listed, with a total of 60 in 2024, 260 in 2025, and 190 in 2026 [106]. - The weekly and monthly output data of PVC, including电石 - based and ethylene - based, are presented seasonally, along with production capacity utilization rates [107][112][115]. 4.5 Import and Export - The import and export volume data of PVC powder, PVC paste resin, and related products are presented seasonally, along with export - related indicators such as export backlog and export profit [117][120][123]. 4.6 Downstream Feedback - The price and export data of downstream PVC products, such as profiles, wall coverings, and pipes, are presented, along with the operating rates of downstream industries [160][163][165]. 4.7 Real Estate Data - Multiple real - estate - related data, including development funds, construction area, sales area, and cement - related data, are presented seasonally [173][174][192]. 4.8 Disk Ratio - The PVC/PP, PVC/PE, PVC/FG, and PVC/RB disk ratio data are presented seasonally [198][199][200].