Tianfeng Securities·2025-11-02 14:15Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US stock market fluctuated and closed higher this week, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rising 0.71%, 0.75%, and 2.24% respectively. The US dollar also rose, and the yield of US Treasury bonds increased significantly. Gold continued to fall, and crude oil prices declined. [3][12][13] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected at the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1. However, Powell's hawkish stance at the press conference led to a significant decline in the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. [4][26] - There were significant progress in China-US trade negotiations, and the US strengthened cooperation with Japan and South Korea. The US government shutdown has lasted for more than a month, and the market expects it to last a total of 46.9 days. [5] - The high-frequency data of the overseas economic fundamentals showed that the overall economic situation was relatively stable, with some indicators showing positive trends and others showing slight declines. [6][8] Summary According to the Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - Equity Market: US stocks fluctuated and closed higher. Positive factors such as China - US trade consultations and corporate earnings reports boosted the market, while Powell's hawkish remarks led to a short - term correction. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 2.24% respectively. European and Asian stock markets showed mixed performances. [3][12] - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar rose. Powell's hawkish stance at the FOMC press conference supported the upward movement of the US dollar. The euro, yen, and RMB against the US dollar showed different trends, with the RMB appreciating slightly against the US dollar. [12] - Interest Rate Market: The yield of US Treasury bonds increased significantly. The Fed's uncertainty about the December interest rate cut and the concerns of some officials about excessive interest rate cuts led to a decline in the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, pushing up the bond yields. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bonds rose 12bp and 9bp respectively. [13] - Commodity Market: Gold continued to fall, mainly due to the sale of gold by the Philippine central bank and the hawkish stance of the Fed. Crude oil prices declined, while copper prices rose slightly. [13] 2. Overseas Policies and Important News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp at the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1. The meeting statement was dovish, but Powell showed a hawkish stance at the press conference, emphasizing that a December interest rate cut was far from certain. [26] - Four Fed officials expressed their cautious stance on excessive interest rate cuts, which further reduced the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. As of November 1, the market's expectation of a December 25bp interest rate cut was 63.0% (91.1% a week ago), and the market expected two more interest rate cuts in 2026. [4][27] 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Trade Negotiations: There were significant progress in China - US trade negotiations, including the cancellation of some tariffs, the suspension of export control rules, and the agreement to resolve the TikTok issue. The US also strengthened cooperation with Japan and South Korea, with South Korea planning to invest $350 billion in the US. [5][29][31] - Government Shutdown: The US government shutdown has lasted for more than a month, and the market expects it to last a total of 46.9 days, until November 17. A US judge ruled that the government could not suspend food assistance during the shutdown. [5][32][33] 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Prosperity - The Bloomberg consensus forecast for the GDP growth rates of the US and the eurozone in 2025 remained basically unchanged. The Fed's real - time forecasting models slightly adjusted the GDP growth rate forecasts for the US in Q3. [40][44] 3.2 Employment - The year - on - year growth rate of the US ASA employment index was basically flat. As of October 19, the ASA employment index was 91, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.14%. [49] 3.3 Demand - US retail sales were stable, airport traffic declined (possibly related to the government shutdown), and the real estate market activity picked up. The mortgage application activity index increased, and the mortgage interest rate decreased slightly. [55] 3.4 Production - The prosperity of the US refining industry declined, while the crude steel production was stable. As of the week of October 25, the crude steel production was 1.747 million short tons, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased to 86.6%. [61] 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) rose, while some other freight indices such as the Baltic Dry Index showed different trends. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased. [63] 3.6 Price - The US retail gasoline price fell, and the inflation expectation in the swap market declined. As of October 31, the average price of AAA - grade gasoline in the US was $3.038 per gallon, and the 1 - year and 2 - year inflation swaps decreased. [67] 3.7 Financial Conditions - The liquidity pressure in the US money market increased. The spread between SOFR and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement widened, and the Fed's SRF operations increased significantly. [72] 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (November 3 - 7, 2025), overseas markets will focus on the US ISM manufacturing and service PMI and the intensive public speeches of Fed officials. [77]