2026年宏观展望：通往供需新均衡

Group 1: Economic Growth and Projections - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic growth, with a projected GDP target of around 5% for 2026, aligning with a potential annual growth rate of 4.17% needed to meet the 2035 goals[3][10][14] - The potential economic growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.8% and 5.0%[12][14] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to stimulate consumption, benefiting service consumption and upgrades in rural and lower-tier cities[3][21] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, enhancing high-quality service provision is crucial to unlocking service consumption potential, with a service trade restrictiveness index (STRI) of 0.225, higher than the OECD average of 0.19[4][46] - The manufacturing sector is expected to address excess capacity through "anti-involution" measures, with an estimated industrial added value of approximately 5 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of industrial enterprises[4][54] - The demand side anticipates limited recovery in fixed asset investment, with infrastructure investment growth expected to remain stable[5][24] Group 3: External and Internal Demand - External demand is projected to remain stable, with U.S. exports expected to grow by around 2% year-on-year in 2026, supported by stable consumption growth and AI investments[5][61] - Domestic consumption is anticipated to shift towards service consumption, with service consumption expected to account for 46.1% of total household consumption by 2024[25][29] - The government aims to enhance public service spending to boost residents' consumption capacity, particularly in the context of common prosperity[32][29] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policies - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic stability[7][7] - The fiscal policy is projected to become more proactive, with a potential increase in the deficit ratio to 4.2% and an expansion of the broad deficit by approximately 1.7 trillion yuan[7][7] - The government plans to optimize tax structures and improve the relationship between central and local finances to enhance fiscal sustainability[7][7] Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Key risks include domestic policies falling short of expectations, potential overperformance of the U.S. economy, and the possibility of renewed trade tensions[7][7]