晶科能源(688223):三季度毛利率、现金流均实现环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year loss in the first three quarters of 2025, but the loss narrowed in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. The company's component shipment volume remained stable, and both gross margin and cash flow improved sequentially [4][9] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures in China are expected to drive price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain, which may lead to a recovery in profitability [9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 47,986.04 million, a decrease of 33.14% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -RMB 3,920.34 million, a significant decline from the previous year [10] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 3.76%, showing a recovery from negative to positive. The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was RMB 2,471 million, indicating a positive cash flow trend [9][10] - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is -RMB 0.38, with subsequent years projected at RMB 0.22 and RMB 0.36 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025-2027 to -RMB 0.38, RMB 0.22, and RMB 0.36, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26.2 and 16.3 for 2026 and 2027 [6][8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately RMB 58,130.23 million, with a circulating share count of 10,005.20 million shares [3]