Changjiang Securities·2025-11-03 00:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [15] Core Insights - The transportation industry shows signs of recovery with various segments experiencing different levels of performance, driven by factors such as fuel cost reduction, normalization of travel demand, and strategic adjustments by companies [2][41] Summary by Sections Aviation - In Q3 2025, listed airlines saw significant improvement in fuel costs, leading to a notable divergence in profitability among carriers. The international growth rate outpaced domestic, with a 19% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 22% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) compared to the same period in 2019 [6][23] - The average fuel price decreased by 11% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability for airlines like China Eastern and Southern, while others faced challenges due to maintenance issues [31][37] Airports - Listed airport companies benefited from the normalization of travel, with gradual increases in passenger flow and stable costs leading to improved profitability. For instance, Shanghai Airport reported a 52.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [7][45][47] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector saw improvements in franchise profitability, while direct operations faced pressure due to increased strategic investments aimed at solidifying core business foundations. The overall market trend indicated a "weak volume, stable price" scenario [8][49] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics continued to face external pressures, with significant declines in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors. However, cargo airlines maintained relatively stable profits due to fleet expansions [9][10] Bulk Supply Chain - Despite weak domestic demand, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies since July has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability for leading supply chain companies [10] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector showed signs of recovery, with oil and bulk shipping profitability improving. Container shipping, while still under pressure, showed better-than-expected performance due to seasonal demand and easing trade tensions [11][12] Ports - Port operations benefited from increased imports of bulk commodities, leading to year-on-year growth in performance, particularly in dry bulk and container segments [12][45] Highways - The highway sector experienced a recovery in traffic volume in Q3 2025, resulting in positive year-on-year profit growth for major listed companies [13] Railways - Railway passenger and freight demand showed slight growth, with companies diversifying into non-coal freight and logistics services to enhance profitability [14]