金信期货日刊-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline of the lithium carbonate 2601 contract on October 31 was due to short - term profit - taking of funds and cautious market sentiment. However, the fundamental support remained unchanged. The current decline was a normal correction in the upward trend, and the short - term high - level volatile game pattern remained [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it was expected that the market would continue to fluctuate at a high level next week [7]. - Gold showed signs of stabilizing after more than a week of adjustment, and it was advisable to buy on dips [12]. - For iron ore, the molten iron might decline periodically, and it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15]. - For glass, the inventory had decreased this week, and the future trend mainly depended on policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, it was regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [19]. - For eggs, although the supply was sufficient, considering the expected losses in egg - chicken farming, there were short - term long - buying opportunities [22]. - For pulp, it was expected to continue to operate weakly and be treated as oscillating at a low level [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus: Lithium Carbonate - On October 31, the lithium carbonate 2601 contract fell 3.42% to 82,363 yuan/ton. The decline was driven by short - term profit - taking of funds and cautious market sentiment. When the previous price approached the resistance level of 85,000 yuan/ton, some long - positions took profits, intensifying the market volatility [3]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side showed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in October increased by 49.6% year - on - year, and the power battery loading volume also increased significantly. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in November showed the characteristic of "not being off - season in the off - season". On the supply side, although the lithium salt production increased slightly month - on - month, the production of lithium from externally purchased raw materials was generally at a loss, and lithium mica plants had a strong sentiment of holding prices, forming a cost support around 70,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The current inventory was at a historical high but continued to decline, and the futures still had a premium over the spot. The short - term decline space was limited [4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The stock index futures closed with a medium - sized阴线. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level next week. Relevant news included positive Sino - US relations and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in October [7]. - Gold: After more than a week of adjustment, gold showed signs of stabilizing, and it was advisable to buy on dips [12]. - Iron Ore: After the holiday, the terminal situation did not improve substantially, and the molten iron might decline periodically. Technically, it fell back near the previous high and was regarded as oscillating with a downward bias. In the long - term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply was expected to be loose [15][16]. - Glass: The daily melting volume changed little, and the inventory decreased this week. The future trend mainly depended on policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, the rebound ended, and it was regarded as oscillating with a downward bias after two consecutive days of negative closes [19]. - Eggs: The inventory of laying hens continued to increase, suppressing the price rebound. However, based on the current price and cost, the future egg - chicken farming was expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken, so there were short - term long - buying opportunities [22]. - Pulp: The pulp price in Shandong remained stable. The current supply - demand fundamentals did not change significantly, the port de - stocking was lower than expected, and the purchasing side was cautious. It was expected to continue to operate weakly and be treated as oscillating at a low level [25].