股指期货：驱动回潮，延续整固

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" indicates a mid - term macro trend of "quantity increase and quality improvement", and the bullish trend of the market remains intact. However, in the short term, at the 4000 - point level of the stock market, the valuation is not cheap from both the stock - bond ERP and price - earnings ratio perspectives. The recent trading data shows a certain divergence from the rising stock index, reflecting the wait - and - see sentiment of funds. Without more positive news to boost sentiment, the expansion of valuation may be limited, and the market may continue to show a volatile trend. The market may be in a sideways movement, and the previous one - sided upward trend of the technology sector will shift to a more balanced style [2]. - The market trading in November is expected to be relatively light, with only the South African G20 meeting. Given the recent meeting between Chinese and US leaders, there may be a lack of major diplomatic news. The PMI in October significantly declined. Before the important policy - setting meeting in December, there are certain policy expectations, and if policies are announced through ministerial press conferences, it may provide intermittent support for the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Stock Market Performance Last Week: The market rose first and then fell last week. In terms of sectors, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and steel led the gains, while communication, beauty care, and banking led the losses. At the beginning of the week, with the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" content and positive news from the China - US - Malaysia economic and trade negotiations, the bullish pattern continued. However, after the Fed cut interest rates as expected on Thursday morning but the Fed Chairman issued hawkish remarks, the certainty of a December rate cut decreased, and the US stocks fell. The A - share market also showed a pattern of "buy on rumor, sell on news" after the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday morning, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a phased high of 4025.7 [1]. - Short - term Market Outlook: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate. The market trading in November is light, and there are policy expectations before the December policy - setting meeting. The market style will become more balanced [2]. - Factors to Watch: Domestic economic data and policy expectations [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend Strategy: Adopt an interval trading strategy and go long on pullbacks. The core operating range of the IF2511 main contract is expected to be between 4502 and 4734 points, IH2511 between 2941 and 3077 points, IC2511 between 7072 and 7546 points, and IM2511 between 7179 and 7663 points [4]. - Variety Strategy: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.3 Spot Market Review - Global Stock Index Performance Last Week: Global stock indices showed mixed performance last week. The Nikkei 225 rose by 6.31%, the Nasdaq by 2.24%, the Taiwan Weighted Index by 2.55%, and the Brazilian BOVESPA Index by 2.30%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, while the Russian RTS, S&P 500, and other indices had different degrees of decline [9]. - Performance of Major Domestic Indices: Most major domestic indices rose last week. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.67%, the Small and Medium - cap Index by 0.87%, and the CSI 500 by 1.00%. The Shanghai 50 Index fell by 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 fell by 1.0% [11]. - Industry Performance of Major Indices: The industries of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices showed mixed performance last week. For example, among the CSI 500 industries, the utilities sector rose by 2.27%, and the industrial sector rose by 2.30%, while the information and energy sectors declined [15][16]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Performance of Stock Index Futures Last Week: The IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [14][20]. - Basis and Cross - Variety Trends of Stock Index Futures: The report also shows the basis (futures - spot) trend and cross - variety trends of stock index futures main contracts [20]. 3.5 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 31, the price - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 300 Index was 14.11 times, and that of the Shanghai 50 Index was 11.77 times. The price - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 33.4 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.53 times [21][23]. 3.6 Market Capital Flow Review - Newly Established Equity - Oriented Funds and Margin Trading: The report shows the trends of newly established equity - oriented fund shares and margin trading balances in the two markets [25]. - Funding Rate and Central Bank's Net Injection: The funding rate rebounded last week, and the central bank had net injections [25].