Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The downstream performance of methanol is not strong during the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. With the MTO economy being squeezed and some devices at risk of shutting down in November, and the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 46 yuan to 2156 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 33 yuan to 2157 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 20,369 lots to 783,800 lots, and short positions increased by 17,233 lots to 1,034,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.7%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period; the overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, while that in South China increased by 2.40 million tons. The inventory of Chinese sample methanol production enterprises is 37.61 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons, a 4.36% increase from the previous period [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 5.13 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 21.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 91.2%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.8%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 69.7%, a 3.2% decrease from the previous period; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.4%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the formaldehyde operating rate is 40.2%, a 2% increase from the previous period; the MTBE operating rate is 67.9%, a 0.1% increase from the previous period [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, meeting market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The downstream of methanol shows a weak performance in the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. The import volume in September was 142.69 million tons, a 18.9% decrease from the previous period. The MTO economy is squeezed, and some devices may shut down in November. With the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251103
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-11-03 01:37