东吴证券晨会纪要-20251103

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint discusses the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting the importance of loyalty to Trump and the need for a candidate who can maintain a dovish stance while being politically balanced [1]. Fixed Income - The report indicates a moderate credit expansion across industries, with structural differentiation being the main theme. While some sectors are actively leveraging, overall leverage remains limited. Industries like light manufacturing, electronics, and public utilities show signs of credit expansion, while real estate and consumer goods are experiencing credit contraction [2][3]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector's third-quarter report for 2025 shows significant profit growth driven by improved investment performance and a rise in new business value (NBV). The liability and asset sides have both improved, indicating a substantial upward valuation potential [3][4]. Individual Company Reports - Yingke Recycling (688087): The company reported revenue and profit growth in Q1-Q3 2025, with a significant increase in operating cash flow. The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 303 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]. - Diwei (688377): The company experienced a 34% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 and plans to issue convertible bonds to enhance its deep-sea and gas turbine component business. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 140/200/260 million yuan [6]. - China CRRC (601766): The company’s rapid growth is driven by railway equipment and new industry business. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is slightly adjusted to 138.08/147.57/158.60 billion yuan [7]. - Hongsheng (603090): The company is seeing a significant increase in profits from liquid cooling, with a profit forecast of 100/200/320 million yuan for 2025-2027 [8]. - Hengxuan Technology (688608): The company reported stable revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a net profit of 502 million yuan, reflecting a 73.50% year-on-year increase [9]. - Shanghai Xiba (603200): The company maintains a strong performance in water treatment and lithium sulfide production, with a profit forecast of 140/200/630 million yuan for 2025-2027 [10]. - Huangyuan Green Energy (603185): The company’s profit forecast is raised significantly due to improved silicon wafer shipments and cost advantages, with expected profits of 510/1010/1410 million yuan for 2025-2027 [11]. - Kehua Data (002335): The company’s profit forecast is adjusted downwards due to a slight delay in data center bidding, with expected profits of 500/900/1400 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12]. - Dike (300842): The company’s profit forecast is adjusted downwards due to silver price fluctuations, with expected profits of 140/410/580 million yuan for 2025-2027 [13]. - Jianghuai Automobile (600418): The company’s profit forecast is adjusted to -600 million yuan for 2025, but increased for 2026 and 2027 to 1900/5000 million yuan [14]. - Sany Heavy Energy (688349): The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 is reported at 144.5 billion yuan, with a profit forecast of 1.2 billion yuan [15]. - JinkoSolar (688223): The company’s profit forecast is adjusted to -4.12 billion yuan for 2025, with a positive outlook for 2026 and 2027 [16]. - China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK): The company maintains a profit forecast of 480/494/528 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [17]. - AIA Group (01299.HK): The company’s profit forecast is slightly adjusted upwards, with expected internal values of 733/781/836 billion USD for 2025-2027 [21]. - Proya Cosmetics (603605): The company’s profit forecast is adjusted downwards due to a challenging adjustment period, with expected profits of 161/178/203 million yuan for 2025-2027 [22]. - Sailis (601127): The company’s profit forecast is adjusted downwards due to increased competition, with expected profits of 8600/12100/16000 million yuan for 2025-2027 [23]. - Jucheng Technology (688049): The company reported record high revenue and net profit in Q1-Q3 2025, with a revenue of 722 million yuan and a net profit of 152 million yuan [25][26].