美联储的暗示与基本面的趋势

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October but gave a hawkish hint, with uncertainty about December rate - cut and the Fed's access to official data due to government shutdown and the expected announcement of the next Fed chair by Trump [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4%, and caution is needed when it breaks below this level due to uncertainty in US tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change, and high - interest rates may suppress the employment market and macro - economy, especially if it impacts the real estate market [2] - The US government shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue, and November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the trend of the US Treasury market [2] - The producer price index has rebounded, with various commodity prices showing different trends in the week of November 1, 2025 [2] Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Scanning - Sino - US Leaders' Meeting: On October 30, Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in economy, trade, energy and promote cultural exchanges [2] - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut and Hints: The Fed cut rates by 25BP in October. Powell said December rate - cut is not certain, and there is strong internal disagreement. Uncertainty exists in the amount of official data the Fed can receive due to government shutdown, and the market may have concerns about Powell's conservatism at the end of his term [2] - US Treasury Yield Movement: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4% following the Fed's hawkish rate - cut. Caution is needed when it breaks below 4% due to uncertainties in tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - US Employment Market Situation: The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change. The 9 - month non - farm employment data is not released, and the ADP private non - farm employment growth rate declined with a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The government shutdown impacts federal government employment, and it's hard to change the overall non - farm employment situation [2] - US Government Shutdown Outlook: The shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue. November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the US Treasury market trend [2] - Price Index Changes: In the week of November 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 1.46% week - on - week and decreased 27.10% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased 8.09% week - on - week and 3.83% year - on - year. The producer price index increased 0.40% week - on - week and decreased 4.27% year - on - year [2] High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scanning - High - Frequency Data and Key Macro - Indicator Trends Comparison: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data such as copper prices, steel production, and key macro - indicators like industrial added value, PPI, and export volume [18][20][29] - Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe: Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and economic growth, inflation, and financial conditions, as well as the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the US and the Eurozone [86][88][97] - Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data: Charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as steel production, producer price index, and real estate - related data [99][103][109] - High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen: Charts present the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [153][156]