东南亚消费行业9月跟踪报告：区域经济延续复苏，消费板块普遍跑赢指数

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Southeast Asia consumption sector, with consumption generally outperforming the index [1]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian economies are showing signs of recovery, with Vietnam leading with a GDP growth of 8.23% year-on-year in Q3 2025, supported by strong manufacturing and services sectors [3][12]. - Inflation remains moderate across the region, with varying trends; Indonesia's CPI rose to 2.65%, while Thailand experienced a decline of 0.72% [4][22]. - Consumer confidence is improving in major economies, with Indonesia's consumer confidence index at 114.96, reflecting optimism about employment and income prospects [15]. Economic Data Summary - GDP Growth: In Q3 2025, Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.23%, Malaysia's by 5.2%, and Singapore's by 2.9%, indicating a robust economic recovery across the region [3][6][26]. - CPI Trends: Indonesia's CPI increased by 2.65%, Thailand's decreased by 0.72%, and Singapore's rose by 0.7%, showing a mixed inflationary landscape [4][22][27]. - Consumer Confidence: Indonesia's consumer confidence index rose to 114.96, while Thailand's index was at 49.4, indicating cautious optimism [15][23]. Consumption Sector Summary - Retail Performance: Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumption sectors rose by 14.9% and 15.7%, respectively, outperforming the index [5]. - Food and Beverage Sales: Indonesia's food and beverage retail sales index grew by 7.3%, reflecting strong consumer demand [17]. - Market Trends: The retail index in Malaysia and Thailand showed positive growth, with Malaysia's essential and discretionary consumption increasing by 5.1% and 6.1% [9][10]. Valuation Summary - Market Valuation: As of September 2025, Malaysia's essential and discretionary consumption valuations were at historical percentiles of 77% and 100%, respectively, indicating a positive valuation trend [5].