Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term adjustment in the technology sector is a preparatory phase for the next "spring rally" in the market [1] - The overall market remains in a slow bull pattern despite short-term corrections, with a focus on style rotation and opportunities for cyclical stocks [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of macro policy expectations and the performance of small-cap stocks during periods of volatility in large-cap technology stocks [10] Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.85%, reaching a ten-year high, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices experienced fluctuations [10] - The market is entering an earnings window period in November, with mixed signals regarding domestic demand recovery [10] - The report notes that while corporate revenue and profits showed significant recovery in September, the October PMI indicated a marginal decline [2][10] Industry and Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, has faced adjustments due to underwhelming earnings reports from companies in the optical communication and PCB sectors [20][34] - Despite the adjustments, domestic computing and storage chip manufacturers have shown strong performance, with significant revenue growth reported [36] - The AI application sector is experiencing a reversal in performance, with increasing penetration rates and initial signs of commercialization in various vertical applications [37][38] Fund Allocation Insights - The report discusses the allocation of active equity funds to the pan-technology manufacturing sector, noting a high configuration ratio of 63.2% and an overweight ratio of 22.1% as of Q3 2025 [22][24] - Historical data suggests that once active equity funds show a significant bias towards a leading industry, this configuration tends to remain elevated for several quarters [29] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the sustainability of these allocations in light of ongoing economic conditions and sector performance [28][29]
策略周报:先破后立等“春躁”-20251103