宏观周报（10月第5周）：10月PMI超季节性回落-20251103

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - October PMI recorded at 49%, indicating a significant seasonal decline and overall below expectations[3] - New export orders decreased due to heightened uncertainties from previous trade conflicts, impacting supply and demand[3] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to stabilize the economy[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The equity market saw a slight increase with a weekly average transaction volume of 23,253 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease in trading volume[3] - The bond market experienced a significant rise, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 5.6 basis points[3] - The central bank's liquidity injection reached a new high of 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards easing monetary policy[3] Group 3: International Context - U.S. stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.71%[3] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, ending balance sheet reduction as of December 1[3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from nearly 100% to around 60% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3]